Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Fund Performance ( inception date, 20 Oct 06) : -5.47440

EUR - (From AFX) "The European Central Bank is widely expected to signal Thursday that it will raise interest rates in December, the sixth increase in a year. But the truly tricky task still awaits the bank: Will it keep going in 2007? The answer, central bankers and ECB watchers suggest, is closer to yes than no. But the timing is very much up in the air. As the economy of the 12-nation euro area has gained momentum over the past year, the ECB - like other central banks, notably the U.S. Federal Reserve - has tightened credit to guard against a resurgence of inflation. A rapid growth rate tends to feed inflation as thriving businesses raise prices and eager consumers pay them. For most of the year, inflation has run slightly above the bank's target of "close to, but below 2 percent," providing one rationale for increasing rates. In October inflation dropped below that level for the second month in a row, to 1.7 percent, the European Union's statistics agency, Eurostat, said Tuesday. But the ECB has already said it regards the dip as a temporary byproduct of lower oil prices, suggesting it would not be deterred from further tightening. New support for the ECB's case that the euro-zone economy is humming came Tuesday when France reported that its unemployment rate in August had dropped to 8.8 percent, the lowest level in five years. But whereas the Fed suspended its two-year string of rate increases last month, amid signs that the U.S. economy was cooling, the ECB is much less certain about what lies ahead. Because of slower U.S. growth, Americans are likely to snap up fewer European exports. And the sharp increase in sales tax in Germany on Jan. 1, to 19 percent from 16 percent, may dent consumer spending in Germany, which has Europe's largest economy. These two factors will help determine how fast the European economy grows next year. More good economic news probably means more interest rate increases early in the year. Unexpectedly weak growth could lead the bank to stand pat.

USD - (From AFX) The dollar fell against most major currencies Wednesday after two economic reports showed more evidence of a sluggish U.S. economy. In afternoon New York trading, the 12-nation euro bought $1.2776, up from $1.2767 in New York late Tuesday. The British pound climbed to $1.9118 from $1.9077. The dollar weakened against the Japanese currency, slipping to 116.89 yen from 116.92 yen on Tuesday. The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest clip in more than three years in October, according to a trade group.

Later

1345h - CHF : Swiss CPI YoY

1400h - EUR : German IFO Unemployment Rate

1545h - EUR : Host of PMI Data

1600h - EUR : Euro Manufacturing PMI

1630h - GBP : PMI Construction

1945h - EUR : ECB announces Int Rate

No comments: