Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Fund Performance (inception date, 20 Oct 06) : -4.24166%

Today

EUR - Decline in German retail sales and in French consumer confidence suggested that the recovery in euro zone private consumption remains uncertain, but consumer spending is still expected to pick up towards the end of the year, economists said. According to 1 analyst, 'Historical experience shows that in the run-up to a VAT hike households bring forward their expenditures in order to circumvent the higher tax burden. Typically, these 'front-running effects' (are seen) in the last two months before the VAT increase takes place' Some economist however said that the figures will not deter ECB from another rate hike in December.

JPY - According to Fukui, recent weak economic data here and in the US have not changed the central bank's intention to gradually increase interest rates in the long term. BoJ has decided to keep interest rates on hold and gave no hints as to exactly when it will consider increasing rates, saying merely that hikes will come 'not too soon, or not too late.'

GBP - Gfk Consumer Confidence data was not high enough to convince a higher GBP, and the UK CBI Trade figures had the first drop since March. The BOE is almost certain to raise rates again next week, but this is well priced into the market.

Later

2030h - CAD : GDP MoM

2200h - USD : Chicago Purchasing Managers / Consumer Confidence

0430h - GBP : PMI Manufacturing Survey

1000h - USD : Construction Spending / ISM Prices Paid / ISM Manufacturing

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