Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date 03 Oct 06) : 2.96%


Today

GBP - Mervyn King mentioned that falling oil prices would not necessarily bring inflation lower in the medium term. His rejection more or less confirm expectations that the Bank will raise rates to 5% next month.

USD - Fed officials have continued to argue that the fallout into the broader economy will be contained despite the slowdown in the housing markets. Ten year bond yields increased further to 4.74%. Dallas Fed President stuck to the Fed script about the near term economic outlook arguing that he was comfortable with the current stance of policy but that if inflation pressures were to rise again then the Fed would take additional measures. We have been hearing about the Fed's concern about the upside inflation risk and less emphasis on slowing growth. This mindset should be reflected in the FOMC minutes due later and will in turn be in favor of a higher USD.

JPY -Though the yen has clearly suffered from the North Korea bomb test, there were rumors that a Swiss bank was eyeing on going long on the JPY. Government Bonds ended higher causing the JPY to stregthen today

EUR - Economists said that today's confirmation that euro zone GDP growth grew at a robust 0.9 pct in the second quarter from the first sealed expectations that the European Central Bank will decide on another rise in interest rates in December. Nevertheless, The European Commission narrowed its euro zone GDP growth forecast for the third quarter to a range of 0.4 to 0.8 pct from its previous projection of 0.3 to 0.9 pct. The commission also changed its forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 0.2 to 0.7 pct from 0.2 to 0.8 pct.

AUD - In his speech today, RBA Governor Stevens openly referred to himself as an inflation hawk. Stevens repeated comments that rate were more likely to go up then down. Overall, the speech reinforced Steven monetary policy position and reinforced the AUD. Watch for falling commodity prices, which may also affect AUD

Later

0750h - JPY : Current Account Total, Trade Balance, BOP Basis

0930 h - AUD : Unemployment Rate, Emplpyment Change

1300h - JPY : Consumer confidence, Consumer Household confidence/ BoJ Policy Meeting

1400 h - EUR : German CPI

1530h - EUR : ECB's Quaden speaks at Inflation Conference

1600h - GBP : BCC Economic Survey

God Speed in the markets

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