Yesterday
GBP - GB showed signs of inflation following the BoE largely expected rate last week. Generally, the figures found little fanfare and the GBP/USD cross actually slid on initial reaction. It was probably due to renewed interest in the underlying Dollar. However, these figures suggest that there might be another rate hike by the first quarter of next year
JPY - (From AFX) The BoJ is reining in money supply too quickly, an "irrational" policy that is contributing to weakness in the economy, Heizo Takenaka, architect of the previous administration's economic policy, told the Financial Times. Mr Takenaka, a former financial services minister often credited with laying the foundations for Japan's current recovery, said the BoJ was rushing to normalise monetary policy. "It will take two or three years to normalise the situation," he said. "But the BoJ is too urgent, too rapid." Since March, when the BoJ ended its ultra-loose monetary policy, the central bank has been draining liquidity, and in July it raised interest rates to 0.25 per cent, the first increase in six years. Mr Takenaka said it was premature to squeeze money supply so aggressively when prices, as measured by the gross domestic product deflator, were still dropping 0.8 per cent a year. "Who is responsible for that?" he said. "Is the government responsible for that? Are companies responsible for that? No. The BoJ is responsible for that." The outspoken Mr Takenaka, who has returned to academia since leaving the government in September, has been a long-time critic of the central bank. But his latest attack is particularly blistering in linking the current economic slowdown with BoJ policy.
USD - (From AFX ) Renewed Consumer Confidence is showing. Consumers across the United States are continuing to make tracks for malls and shopping centers, defying the forecasts of some economists who predicted the year-long housing slump would keep them at home. Combined with falling energy prices and a pickup in job and income growth, the buying spree heralds robust holiday sales and economic momentum heading into the new year, economists say. A strong U.S. economy bodes well for global growth…Retailers, who were apprehensive earlier this year when gasoline prices exceeded $3 a gallon, or 80 cents a liter, are breathing easier... Consumer resilience goes a long way in explaining the Fed's confidence that the economic expansion will march on. "The 95 percent of the economy outside of housing remains on good footing," Michael Moskow, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, told business leaders in his city last week. The outlook has not been lost on investors, who pushed the Dow Jones industrial average to a record close last Wednesday. The Standard & Poor's 500 consumer discretionary index, which includes stocks of 86 companies directly dependent on consumer spending - like Starbucks, Nike and Bed Bath & Beyond - is up 15 percent over the past three months. October sales at Federated Department Stores, which owns Macy's and Bloomingdale's; J.C. Penney; and Nordstrom exceeded projections. And there is cause for more optimism, according to the accounting firm Ernst & Young, which estimates that Americans will spend 6.5 percent more this November and December than a year earlier.
Oil - The International Energy Agency said global energy demand will jump in the fourth quarter because of U.S. consumption, while demand for oil produced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will rise to its highest level in four years. The IEA said global demand for OPEC oil is expected to rise 1.6 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter from the third quarter because of weaker output from non-OPEC countries. The IEA trimmed its outlook for growth in 2006 global oil demand to 1.1% from 1.2% in its October report.
Today
JPY - (From UBS) This morning Q3 GDP came out stronger than expected at 0.5%q/q against 0.2%q/q consensus and Q2 GDP was revised up from 0.2%q/q to 0.4%q/q. This helped the Nikkei rally almost 1.70% this morning and the JPY to recover lost ground across the board. The stronger than expected data will help the BOJ prepare the case for a rate hike in December but economics minister Ota and finance minister Omi both were on the wires this morning calling on the BOJ to keep supporting growth
Later
1630h - GBP : CPI
1730h - EUR : Eurozone ZEW Survey / EuroZone GDP
2030h - USD : PPI
No comments:
Post a Comment