Monday, November 27, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date, 20 Oct 06) :-1.70154%

Yesterday

USD - Fed Data is indicates that the construction industry is nearing the bottom and is set to stabilise, without unduly undermining consumer confidence. This would allow economic growth to return towards trend next year. On FX, Dollar gained is slowly gaining strength on optimism because of good Thanksgiving sales in the US. This could signal the near term correction that everyone is looking for in the EUR/USD pair

EUR - Europe is overtaking the United States and Japan in the race to reap benefits from the explosion in world trade and investment. The Continent is claiming a bigger share than the United States of the increased trade with fast-emerging markets like Brazil, Russia, India and China, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group. Companies like the French retailer Carrefour and the German software maker SAP are winning customers in emerging markets at the expense of rivals based in other regions…Investors have already taken note, with global fund managers naming the 12-nation euro zone as their preferred stock market worldwide for six straight months and forecasting more gains next year, according to findings in a Merrill Lynch survey published this month. The European companies are better able to exploit opportunities in emerging markets, partly because they have cut jobs at home or moved factories to cheaper labor markets overseas…"

Today

JPY - Japan released its retail figures this morning, indicating a 0.1% increase. Markets were expecting a 1.2% decrease. However on FX, the markets did not react to the 0.1% increase. The USD and EUR crosses did not show much movement to the news. BoJ Fukui yesterday again offered little insight on whether the central bank would tighten policy in December. He only repeated previous remarks that the Japanese central bank will gradually adjust interest rates, but he avoided ruling out the possibility of a rate increase by year end. He suggested that developments in domestic private consumption, capital spending, and the U.S. economy are key factors in setting monetary policy.

USD - Durables Goods figures came in a while ago, showing the largest decline since January. This caused the dollar shorts to take a quick profit before the Housing figures set for release later in 20 minutes time. Earlier, Paulson had asked a more flexible Yuan and that a strong dollar was in US interest.

OECD - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development yesterday criticised the Russian government for its expansion into key economic sectors and raised concern about the "seemingly insatiable appetite" of Gazprom, its state-run energy giant. OECD said that Gazprom has been expanding its interests in recent years in other sectors such as oil, electricity, power generation machinery and media and her investments in developing gas fields has been minimal over the past few years, leading to stagnating production. The OECD's criticism comes at a time of growing concern about Russia's ability to sustain and increase its gas production. On Japan, OECD said that the BoJ should not raise interest rates until economic indicators show that the country is out of deflation. On China, it raises its GDP growth to 10.7 % in 2006 and 10.3% in 2007. OECD's Cotis also said that the yuan is indervalued, and that oil is not likely to dip any further and that metal prices will decline. Cotis also said that the Euro rise was not alarming as it reflected the strength of the Euro economies. On the US, OECD said that growth will slow down but will pick up slightly in late 2007.

Later

2300h - USD : Existing Home Sales / Consumer Confidence / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Outlook

0100h - USD : Bernanke speaks on the US economy in NY

0530h - USD : Fed's Moskow speaks in Chicago

0750h - JPY : Industrial Production Figures

0830h - AUD : Trade Balance

1730h - GBP : M4 Money Supply / Consumer Credit

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