Bias : Short Term Indicators show that the CAD is undervalued by traders.
AUD / NZD - (From UBS) NZ employment data this morning disappointed market expectations and sent the NZD lower. Employment for Q3 contracted by -0.4% q/q against market expectations of a +0.2% q/q expansion, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% versus expectations of a 0.1 percentage point rise to 3.7%. The data looks genuinely soft and seems to be a payback for strength in the labour market in H1. Meanwhile, Australian labour force data also disappointed. Employment for October fell by -32.1k against expectations of a +7.5k gain, while the unemployment rate held steady, but purely due to a deterioration in the labour force participation rate. The bad data could be a one-month blip, but more likely is a reflection of a slowing domestic economy. The next month's employment survey will be critical in that assessment.
EUR - (From AFX) Economists surveyed by the European Central Bank have raised their forecasts for euro zone growth in 2006 and 2007, the ECB said in its November monthly bulletin. The average forecast for 2006 inflation from experts taking part in the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) rose to 2.6 pct from 2.2 pct... This forecast measures inflation expectations five years ahead. The ECB aims to keep inflation below, but close to, 2.0 pct over the medium term. Also, Germany's top economists issued a devastating verdict yesterday on the policies of Angela Merkel, the chancellor, saying they had become hostage to "contradictory political interests". The annual report of the "council of wise men" which advises the government underscores mounting disappointment among experts and business at the government's inability to use the strong recovery to push through reforms... The report's harsh assessment, coupled with its optimistic view of the current economic rebound and a higher-than-expected growth forecast for next year, underlined the growing rift between Germany's robust performance as an economy and the lack of progress in structural reforms.
USD - (From AFX) U.S. policies are about to undergo a significant realignment following the huge victory handed to Democrats in Tuesday's U.S. elections. With Iraq policy sure to be among the Democrats' highest-priority targets, President George Bush sought to reclaim the initiative Wednesday by announcing the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to make way for "fresh perspective" on the issue to come from former Central Intelligence Agency director Robert Gates. While Democrats are assured of a big majority in the House of Representatives and might just squeak to a one-seat majority in the Senate, it doesn't mean the Republican president will face gridlock. Some divided governments of recent years have yielded some of Washington's best-known achievements, as Washington reporters Jackie Calmes And David Rogers note. And though oil companies might face a reduction in tax breaks, drug companies might face a tougher environment and the outlook might dim for extending the president's authority to negotiate new trade deals, heightened Democratic power might be beneficial for business in other areas. Democrats might try to ease labor shortages by creating a guest-worker program, especially after receiving resounding support from Hispanics. They might seek to spread the benefits of globalization more widely, shield workers from its blows, revamp worker training and retraining programs and push alternative energy.
JPY - The Japanese economy probably grew at about the same pace as the previous quarter in the three months to September with strong car exports to the US countered by a decline in consumer spending, economists said. The projected drop in consumer spending, which makes up 55 pct of the world's second-largest economy, will be the first in seven quarters, and along with expectedly weaker capital investment by Japanese companies, could convince the Bank of Japan to hold off another hike in its key interest rate for the rest of the year, some economists said.
Japan's gross domestic product is projected to have grown by 0.3 pct in real terms in the September quarter compared to the previous three months, or at an annualized rate of 1.2 pct, based on the average estimate of 10 economists polled by XFN-Asia.
Later
1900h - GBP : BoE Rate Decision
2030h - USD : Trade Balance / Import Price Index / Initial Jobless Claims
2030h - CAD : New Housing Price Index / International Merchandise Trade
2200 h - USD : U.Michigan Confidence Index
2230h - GBP : Leading Indicator Index
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