Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date, 20 Oct 06) : -3.28702

Today

USD - The US dollar was mainly softer against most major currencies. The mid term election results have been announced. As expected, the Democrats have regained control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 12 years. With the uncertainty regarding the elections is largely out of the way, financial markets will start to focus again on the health of the US economy and the housing market in particular. In the long term, given the recent healthy employment report, we do not expect to see the Fed cut rates this year, but possibly early next year. Tonight, Fed's Moskov will speak at 2110h on the US Economic outlook.

EUR - German Industrial Sales and better than expected Trade Surplus Figures sent the EUR higher against most majors. Europe's economic policymakers clashed yesterday over whether higher interest rates are needed to contain inflation, as the region looks forward to another two years of strong growth. Hawks at the European Central Bank are troubled by the inflationary outlook, with one member of the bank's rate-setting board claiming that the rise in consumer prices and credit was "alarming". But some EU finance ministers meeting in Brussels take a more dovish stance, pointing to the European Commission's autumn forecast which shows inflation set to fall below the ECB's2 per cent target in 2008.

JPY - BOJ policy board member Mizuno made a speech on the Bank's semi-annual report in a closed-door seminar overnight. According to the text later released by the BOJ, his remarks
were somewhat hawkish. Although he did not stick to a rate hike in the rest of the year, he said that the BOJ should conduct gradual interest rate adjustment if weakness of data can be
seen as temporary ahead of the year-end. The Cabinet Office reported that the September leading economic index was 20.0%, below the watershed of 50% for three months in a row. With a softer dollar and stronger Yen, we could see the USD/JPY head towards 115 levels.

Later

2015h - CAD : Housing Starts

2110h - USD : Fed's Moskow speaks on US Economic outlook

0445h - NZD : Unemployment rate

0650h - JPY : M2 Supply

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