Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Fund Performance (inception date, 20 Oct 06) : -4.24166%

Today

EUR - Decline in German retail sales and in French consumer confidence suggested that the recovery in euro zone private consumption remains uncertain, but consumer spending is still expected to pick up towards the end of the year, economists said. According to 1 analyst, 'Historical experience shows that in the run-up to a VAT hike households bring forward their expenditures in order to circumvent the higher tax burden. Typically, these 'front-running effects' (are seen) in the last two months before the VAT increase takes place' Some economist however said that the figures will not deter ECB from another rate hike in December.

JPY - According to Fukui, recent weak economic data here and in the US have not changed the central bank's intention to gradually increase interest rates in the long term. BoJ has decided to keep interest rates on hold and gave no hints as to exactly when it will consider increasing rates, saying merely that hikes will come 'not too soon, or not too late.'

GBP - Gfk Consumer Confidence data was not high enough to convince a higher GBP, and the UK CBI Trade figures had the first drop since March. The BOE is almost certain to raise rates again next week, but this is well priced into the market.

Later

2030h - CAD : GDP MoM

2200h - USD : Chicago Purchasing Managers / Consumer Confidence

0430h - GBP : PMI Manufacturing Survey

1000h - USD : Construction Spending / ISM Prices Paid / ISM Manufacturing
Fund Performance (inception date, 20 Oct 06) : -5.243%

Yesterday

USD - The dollar was rangebound after the soft GDP and PCE figures. One of the Fed's top priorities is to improve the central bank's communication with the public, especially about its goals for inflation and growth and how it plans to achieve them. But the more Bernanke and his colleagues concentrate on that task, the harder it appears.

EUR - Figures released Friday showed the U.S. economy grew at a pace of only 1.6 percent in the third quarter, the slowest in more than three years. But in European boardrooms, the prospect of a slowdown in the United States - still Europe's largest export market - is producing little more than a shrug. Years of restructuring have left companies significantly better able to weather a rough patch than five years ago, the last time the European economy fell into serious trouble. Europe's executives also are turning more toward spots in Europe where things are humming - notably the former Communist states of the East - and selling their wares in booming Asia markets and oil-exporting countries flush with cash. Along with a U.S. slowdown, another looming event that could affect matters is the Jan. 1 increase in the value-added tax in Germany, which has Europe's largest economy. Those two factors have already led the International Monetary Fund to warn that European growth will slow to about 2 percent in 2007 from a predicted 2.4 percent this year.

Later

1200h - JPY : Small business Confidence

1300h - JPY : Semi-annual outlook report on economy

1400h - GBP : Nationwide Housing Prices

1400h - EUR : Gernam Retail Sales

1700h - EUR : Eurozone Business Climate Indicator

1730h - GBP : Gfk Consumer Confidence Consumer Survey

2000h - CAD : MoM GDP

Friday, October 27, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date, 20 Oct 06) : -4.2552%

Thursday and Friday

EUR - Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, hinted again on Thursday that interest rates would rise another quarter percentage point to 3.5 per cent in December, telling the European parliament that if the ECB's base-line scenario was confirmed, "it will remain warranted to further withdraw monetary accommodation". Many economists expect a de-facto ECB pause in 2007 as eurozone economic growth slows and the region digests a three percentage point rise in German VAT in January. But recent data have shown eurozone growth remaining robust. Germany's GfK institute yesterday reported consumer confidence at a five-year high.


USD - Prices for newly built American homes have suffered their largest drop year-on-year since 1970, according to data released yesterday, highlighting the dramatic nature of the downturn of the US housing sector. The Federal Reserve has been juggling the threat posed to the -economy by the slump in housing with the threat from historically high levels of inflation. On Wednesday the central bank signalled it was -relatively content with the current balance, predicting "moderate growth" for the economy and deciding to hold rates steady at 5.25 per cent. Economists warned that the housing figures were not entirely reliable. The greenback was pounded on a weaker GDP report

Tomorrow

0900h - NZD : M3 YoY

1100h - JPY : Vehicle Production

1530h - EUR : Italian Retailers' General Confidence / Italian Services Survey

1630h - GBP : M4 Money Supply

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception 20 Oct 06) : -3.695%

Today

JPY - Word has it that Watanabe may have visited Washington DC to discuss joint FX intervention with US Treasury officials. That is because USD/JPY is expected to test a
psychologically important level of 120 in the near future. Watch for the MOF's further verbal intervention in the FX market and we might see a sell off of the USD/JPY.

USD - The dollar edged slightly lower against major currencies Tuesday, on the cusp of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting on interest rate policy. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at 5.25 percent at its meeting, which ends Wednesday, but investors are awaiting the statement that will accompany the decision for clues on the direction of future policy. Most of them expect Hawkish statements from the Fed.

Later

1400h - EUR : German Import Price Index

1445h - EUR : French Business Confidence Indicator

1600h - EUR : German IFO - Business Climate / Expectations

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception : 20 Oct 06) : -6.487%

Yesterday

Quiet session for FX yesterday

AUD - Q3 PPI came in at 1% which was higher than the market's expectation of 0.8%. The market will therefore be expecting a rate hike by the RBA in November.

JPY - MoF Vice Finance Minister Watanabe said that real effective exchange rate analysis that suggested the JPY was undervalued was misleading and he said that the size and impact of JPY carry trades was exaggerated in the market. The market suspects that the government influences will interfere with the BoJ's decision to raise rates.

USD - The dollar was firmer in most most crosses in yesterday's trade. President Bush on Monday trumpeted the strength of the economy, an important issue in about two dozen congressional races that will determine whether Republicans retain control of the House.

Later

1445h - EUR : French Consumer Spending

1700h - EUR : Industrial New Orders

1800h - GBP : CBI Industrial Trend Survey

2200h - USD : Richmond Manufacturing Index

Friday, October 20, 2006

Fund Performance (inception date : 20 Oct 06) : 1.6145%

Today

GBP - The pound was higher after data released today showed the UK economy grew above its long-run average during the third quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of above-trend growth. The news will further cement market expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again next month and is also likely to reignite the debate over whether further rate hikes will follow in the new year.

JPY - Fuki re-iterated that the Japanese economy is expanding at a moderate pace, he also mentioned that the BoJ will monitor oil prices as well as future US economic conditions. Earlier in the morning, there were talks of more USD/JPY selling but it looks like the FX pair has found support in the 118.25 - 118.39 range. The JPY might strengthened now that North Korea tension has somewhat lesssen.

NZD - Credit Card Spending increased and data showed that there was a higher influx of migrants in the country, which caused the NZD to appreciate. Next week, AUD and NZD CPI figures are out on 25 Oct 06.

Later

1900h - CAD : CPI figures are out. The Bank of Canada's target for inflation is 2-3%

The fund that I started on 03 Oct 06 was liqudated as I was bearish on the cable on the release of yesterday's weaker retail figures.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date : 03 Oct 06) : -0.6668

Today

JPY - Word has it that the investments were selling the USD/JPY pair today, which saw the decline of the USD against the Yen to 118.53 today. Other issues to look out for include North Korea threatening to stage a third and fourth nuclear test.

GBP - The pound fell across the board after this morning's very weak UK retail sales figures, while the euro got a small boost from news that Germany's six leading research institutes have revised up their economic growth forecasts. Figures out of the UK this morning showed retail sales fell by 0.4 pct in September from August, against expectations of a 0.4 pct rise and the first monthly fall since January. Further weighing on the pound were data suggesting that UK mortgage lending growth and approvals slowed in September, while public finances data for September were also much worse than the market had anticipated. Earlier today, some relatively dovish comments from Monetary Policy Committee member Rachel Lomax -- who said the recent rise in house prices did not signal the start of an economic boom -- had also weighed on the currency, particularly as the market has already fully priced in a rate hike next month.

EUR - The euro garnered support from news that Germany's six leading research institutes have revised up their forecast for economic growth in Europe's largest economy this year to 2.3 pct from their previous estimate of 1.8 pct. Germany's GDP growth in 2006 has been buoyed by strong domestic demand and increasing exports, the institutes said. They also revised up their estimate for GDP growth in 2007.

Later

2030h - USD : Initial Jobless Claims

2200h - USD : Leading Indicators

0000h - USD : Philadelphia Fed

1430h - JPY : Fuki speaks

1500h - JPY : Convenience Store Sales

1630h - GBP : GDP (QoQ)

God Speed everyone

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date : 03 Oct 06) : 0.5418%

Today

JPY - Today's BoJ Minutes shared the idea that the domestic economy would continue to expand moderately. There is still a record number of JPY short positions but there is still speculation that there is much Yen demand from Russia. The Yen continues to strengthen against the USD but it seems that the demand side for the dollar came into play after 1600h.

GBP - MPC Minutes guarantees a Nov hike and the overall tone was hawkish compared to King's.

Oil - OPEC is starting to show its cracks after being so solid in recent years. Oil prices took a dip on renewed skepticism about OPEC's ability to effectively reduce production.

USD - A sharp drop in US production grabbed the attention of market participants. The market seemed oblivious to the to the capital inflows data, which more than doubled to an all time high. Clearly the latter suggests that there is no crisis of confidence in US assets or in the US-dollar.

Later

1415h - CHF - Swiss Trade Balance

1445h - EUR - French Trade Balance

1600h - EUR - Italian Industrial Orders / Sales

1630h - GBP - Retail Sales / Public Finances / M4 Money Supply

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date: 03 Oct 06) : 0.5418%

USD - Market expectations broadly believe the Fed will maintain its current overnight target rate at 5.25 percent at that gathering, a level that's also widely predicted to hold through the remainder of the year. The US currency declined following the publication of the latest Empire State survey of manufacturing activity in the New York region, which sent mixed signals on the US economy. One analyst commented that while the general business conditions index was solid, the other activity indicators showed signs that they may be losing forward momentum. Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates on hold at a meeting later this month, but any easing of inflationary concerns could spark speculation about a rate cut and so hurt dollar sentiment.

JPY - The yen, meanwhile, gained against the dollar after the Russian central bank announced plans to diversify its reserves by adding the Japanese currency to its portfolio.
First Deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev told a conference that Russia planned to broaden the number of currencies in its reserve portfolio and that it had recently included the yen. Department store sales in September rose 1.0 pct year-on-year to 563.6 bln yen, the first increase in six months, the Japan Department Stores Association said.

GBP - Lower petrol prices helped inflation in the UK ease back a touch in September but it stayed above the Bank of England's target rate for the fifth month running. The latest figure is the highest since November 2005 but equals the reading in February this year. The figures suggest that the Bank of England will raise interest rates again next month.

EUR - The euro dipped after data showed an unexpected drop in euro zone September inflation to 1.7 pct from the provisional estimate of 1.8 pct, while the German ZEW index of economic

Later

2030h - USD : Producer Price Index

2115h - USD : Capacity Utilization / Industrial Production

Investors will be looking to the USD figures for signs of a weaker dollar

2330h - EUR : Italian Current Account

1300h - JPY : BoJ Minutes for Sep Monetary Policy Meeting

1600h - EUR : Italian Trade Balance

1630h - GBP : BoE's Minutes of October Meeting / Jobless Change Claims

1700 h - EUR : Eurozone Trade Balance

God Speed in the markets

Monday, October 16, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date : 03 Oct 06) : -0.4542%

Today's events

USD - The dollar ended on friday firmer after strong retail figures were released on friday. It really shows that US consumers are spending the savings they have from the pump stations. This morning the dollar was lower against most currencies after some profit taking from the hawkish sentiment about the dollar on friday

EUR - Stronger than expected Italian HCIP and German Retail / industrial figures today should mean that the ECB might increase rates in the next quarter. Trichet is due to speak at 2000h

JPY - News that Central Bank of Russia is diversifying into yen, quickly sent both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY lower in early European trade tonight. While traders reported that initial order flow in the market was small, the announcement by the first deputy chairman of the central bank noted that Russia intends to ultimately raise its proportion of yen holdings to several percent of its total reserves.

OIL - Oil cartel OPEC has cuts its 2006 world oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 bpd amid sweeping declines in oil prices since July, saying a slowing global economy is weighing on demand. The cartel is due to meet in QATAR and the emergency meeting has prompted oil prices to soar.

Later

2000h - EUR - Trichet speaks

2030h - USD - Empire Manufacturing

0000h - USD - Bernanke speaks to Banker's Annual Convention

0750h - JPY - Tertiary Industry Index

1200h - JPY - Condo Sales

1330h - JPY - Nationwide department store sales

1630h - GBP - Core CPI / Retail Price Index

Friday, October 13, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date : 03 Oct 06) -1.4%

Friday's events

JPY - BoJ leaves monetary policy unchanged. The JPY appreciated upon the announcement.

USD - St Louis Fed William Poole says inflation risks have receded in last 8-10 weeks and danger to growth and jobs have grown. Says while he is still an inflation hawk, he would back an interest rate cut if the economy stumbled. Chicago Fed Michael Moskow, non voter, says more rate hike may still be need to cut inflation. Risks of high inflation risks are greater than the risks of too-low growth.

AUD - PM John Howard says RBA must consider a drought gripping the nation when deciding whether to increase interest rates.

EUR - Interesting talks of good European "officials" :semi-official" and ENCBs offers capping EUR/JPY on topside above 150.20-50, and "preventing" huge stoploss above from being triggered, as EU, ECB does not welcome further EUR/JPY rise to new highs. WIll be good to monitor ECB

USD - Job markets are tightening across the country, but that hasn't yet produced a notable acceleration in wages, the Federal Reserve's latest survey of economic conditions has found. The Fed's "beige book" found sharply slowing housing activity but no sign yet that consumer spending has broadly slowed. Falling energy prices have provided some relief while not yet leading to notably lower consumer prices, it said. "Economic activity continued to expand," according to the report, which is prepared a few weeks in advance of each policy meeting of the central bank. Four of the Fed's 12 districts reported that business activity "firmed," a couple said it "cooled" and others said growth was "moderate or mixed." The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 24-25. It is widely expected to leave its short-term interest-rate target at 5.25% as it waits for inflation to moderate.

Later

1000 h - NZD - Non-Resident Bond Holdings, markets expect that the report will show that foreigners still hold the vast majority of private and national debt

1230h - JPY - Bankruptcies

1600h - EUR - Italian CPI

1800h - Trichet speaks on Europe's Economic Growth Potential

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception 03 Oct 06) : -0.03%

Today

AUD - The strong labor market within Australia has lended more strength to argument that the RBA will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.25 pct in its November meeting. According to one economist, the Australian economy remains capacity constrained and household incomes will continue to be boosted by employment gains and wages growth.

JPY - Japan's current account surplus in August rose 22.2 pct to 1.48 trln yen from 1.21 trln a year earlier, increasing at a bigger rate than the market had estimated after rising 7.1 pct in July. Economists had been expecting a surplus of 1.45 trln yen, the consensus forecast in a Nihon Keizai Shimbun poll. However consumer confidence figure released today was slightly below expectations, but did not have much impact on the JPY, the JPY instead strengthen on the BoJ's comments that they will only raise rates whenever they perceive necessary

Later

2030h - USD : Trade Balance / Jobless Claims

0200h - USD : Beige Book

0750h - JPY : Import/Export Price Index

God Speed in the markets

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date 03 Oct 06) : 2.96%


Today

GBP - Mervyn King mentioned that falling oil prices would not necessarily bring inflation lower in the medium term. His rejection more or less confirm expectations that the Bank will raise rates to 5% next month.

USD - Fed officials have continued to argue that the fallout into the broader economy will be contained despite the slowdown in the housing markets. Ten year bond yields increased further to 4.74%. Dallas Fed President stuck to the Fed script about the near term economic outlook arguing that he was comfortable with the current stance of policy but that if inflation pressures were to rise again then the Fed would take additional measures. We have been hearing about the Fed's concern about the upside inflation risk and less emphasis on slowing growth. This mindset should be reflected in the FOMC minutes due later and will in turn be in favor of a higher USD.

JPY -Though the yen has clearly suffered from the North Korea bomb test, there were rumors that a Swiss bank was eyeing on going long on the JPY. Government Bonds ended higher causing the JPY to stregthen today

EUR - Economists said that today's confirmation that euro zone GDP growth grew at a robust 0.9 pct in the second quarter from the first sealed expectations that the European Central Bank will decide on another rise in interest rates in December. Nevertheless, The European Commission narrowed its euro zone GDP growth forecast for the third quarter to a range of 0.4 to 0.8 pct from its previous projection of 0.3 to 0.9 pct. The commission also changed its forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 0.2 to 0.7 pct from 0.2 to 0.8 pct.

AUD - In his speech today, RBA Governor Stevens openly referred to himself as an inflation hawk. Stevens repeated comments that rate were more likely to go up then down. Overall, the speech reinforced Steven monetary policy position and reinforced the AUD. Watch for falling commodity prices, which may also affect AUD

Later

0750h - JPY : Current Account Total, Trade Balance, BOP Basis

0930 h - AUD : Unemployment Rate, Emplpyment Change

1300h - JPY : Consumer confidence, Consumer Household confidence/ BoJ Policy Meeting

1400 h - EUR : German CPI

1530h - EUR : ECB's Quaden speaks at Inflation Conference

1600h - GBP : BCC Economic Survey

God Speed in the markets

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Fund Performance till date (inception 3 Oct 06) : 2.89%

Today

Market Bias : USD was generally perceived to be overvalued by traders.

JPY - Today's Private Sector Machinery Orders for August showed that companies may be slowing down on their capital spending. Japanese core machine orders expanded 6.7% (less than the 11.2% expected) in August. Internal core Japanese machinery orders decreased but external orders remain robust (reflecting the strong global economy and recent weakness in the JPY).

USD - San Francisco Federal Reserve president Janet Yellen said that there had been a "noticeable slowdown" in the US economy. But while Yellen also said that US interest rates are moderately restrictive, she said that this was "appropriate" given the inflation risks. Fed might pause rates in the near term. The dollar weakened slightly after N.Korea said that they were willing to comply with UN Interventions.

EUR - ECB Adds EUR9.5 Billion In 1-Day Quick Refi At 3.05% And Up French industrial output rebounded 0.8% in August, which were better than the market's expectation for a 0.7% increase. Italian output also rose 1.2% MoM. However the market more strongly to the French trade deficit data which widened to 3.5 bln eur in August from 3.4 bln in July. Economists also said that the French positive figurestoday still proved that the overall economy is still slowing down. ECB also called for a quick tender to offset an expected liquidity shortage in the money market. The tender was called at the time which conincided with the French economy figures.

GBP - Retail Sales in the UK high streets slowed in September as milder weather and consumer caution hit spending levels, according to the British Retail Consortium. It said that like-for-like sales, which strips out the effects of changes in floor space, rose by an annual rate of 2.4 pct, against expectations of 2.5 pct. The rate was also at 2.5 pct in August. Clothing and footwear were hit hard by unseasonally mild weather, while homeware and furniture sales were also slower than in August. The BRC said consumers are still pessimistic after the Bank of England's unexpected interest rate hike in August.

Later

GBP - Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, is making a speech today. Watch for what he focuses on

2015h - CAD : Canadian Housing Starts. Consensus is 222,000 vs Previous 214,000. A reported increase in net employment through the month of September could offer some proof of a modest rebound in the leading housing gauge

0930 h - AUD : Home Loans and investment Lending

1400h - JPY : Tool Machine Orders

1700h - AUD : RBA Governor Stevens speaks on the economy

1700h - EUR : Host of data including European commission GDP Forecast

God Speed in the markets

Monday, October 09, 2006

Fund Performance till date (inception date : 03 Oct 06) - 45.3%

There were no posts on friday cos I took a break from trading.

Today's events

USD - The dollar gained on positive unemployment figures on friday. The unemployment rate got even tighter reaching 4.6% vs. 4.7% prior reading. In fact, we can look to the equity market for a expected reading on the unemployment rate in future. It's Columbus Day today, so the Bonds and Fed Markets are closed wheras the Equities and Futures Markets are opened

JPY - Jap market is closed today because it's Sports Day. However the Yen weakened upon news that N.Korea claiming that she had carried out its nuke test. There is an event political risk and we might see an appreciation in the USD, oil, gold and a further weakening of the JPY.

Later

Fed Yellen to speak on national economy; Fisher Fed Bank of Dallas will speak tomorrow

0930h : AUD - National Bank's Business Survey Figures released. Prices on metals might have a greater influence on the AUD, keep your positions to the short term. Market consensus on the AUD is generally bullish

1300h : JPY - Japanese Machine Orders are expected to increase MoM and YoY. However, any political event change over N.Korea might still render the Yen vulnerable

1445h : EUR - French Industrial Production figures / French Trade Balance

1600h : EUR - Italian Industrial Production

1645h : GBP - Visible Trade Balance

1800h : GBP - BRC Retails Sales Monitor Figures



Thursday, October 05, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date : 03 Oct 06) : 60.3%

Today's events

JPY - BoJ Muto spoke today with slightly hawkish comments, which did almost nothing to appreciate the Yen. Trichet is speaking now and he might say something that might take the market offguard, especially when the EUR is overvalued against the Yen. Yen still at the crossroads.

USD - The dollar edged higher as interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England failed to yield any surprises and as market players awaited tomorrow's release of key US employment data.

Tomorrow

0750h : JPY
- Official Reserve Assets released

1345h : CHF - Unemployment Rate (SEP)

1900h : CAD -
Unemployment Rate (SEP)

2030h : USD -
The consensus for Friday's key jobs figures is that non-farm payrolls will grow by just 105,000 in September after rising by 128,000 in August. My take is that job figures will be better than expected. I am going long on the dollar






Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date: 03 Oct 06) : 89.3%

Today's Events

AUD : As expected, the RBA did not raise interest rates and held it at 6%. Still, AUD was sold off in anticipation of weaker commodity prices. On the other hand, we have a smaller than expected trade deficit of 208M vs the market's expectation of 600M. Watch for a corrrection near term

EUR : The EUR went weak against after soft PMI Services data that were released from the EU.
JPY : The YEN is looking very volatile with the North Korean tension, inexperienced Finance Ministers and the lack of support from CNY.

Later

Host of Fed Speakers coming up

0045h : Bernake is going to touch on Savings at the Economic Club in Washington. Watch for the slightest comments on the Fed's Rate decision

0730h : Fed's John speaks on economic outlook in NY.

0930h and 1300h : BOJ's Muto speaks at Press conference

1700h : Wantanabe speaks

1900h : BoE's Rate decision - BoE expected to hike rates

2030h : Trichet holds a press conference.

Watch for comments on the JPY being too weak as I am expecting the JPY to appreciate

Exciting day tomorrow, God Speed everyone

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Fund Performance per day ( inception date 03 Oct 06) - 105%

Today's Events

AUD: - NAB (NAtional Australian bank) said that its business confidence dropped to 2 points in Sep from 8 pints in the June quarter. Aug Retail Sales up 0.3 vs 0.2 Consensus. According to one economist, "The August results bolsters the view that over time consumers have become more used to living with high gasoline prices". The market is foresees "the RBA is unlikely to move tomorrow, before it gets another read on inflation (due at the end of this month), another rate rise remains on the cards before the end of the year". Overall, I am bullish on AUD given the recent collapse of commodity prices

JPY: - Watch for the tension between North Korea and Japan. According to Bloomberg, "The yen fell against the euro and the dollar after North Korea said it will conduct a nuclear test.." History showed that the yen fell 0.8 percent against the dollar after North Korea fired seven missiles on July 5.. however the currency recouped the loss within two days.

Tomorrow

0730h - RBA Rate Decision, Strong expectation that the RBA will hold rates, although there was some bullish sentiment on the AUD

0930h - AUD : Trade Balance Announced. Market consensus is a $600M deficit but 1 anlyst is forecasting a $900M deficit given the recent export momentum

0945h - USD - Fed's Hoenig speaks on economy

1500h - EUR - Trichet speaks at EU Parliament

1700h - EUR - Eurozone Retail Sales.

God Speed in the markets.

Monday, October 02, 2006

Ouch, I made a serious mistake today. I did not place a stop loss order on my last trade and eventually, the funds got liquidated. It was a really silly and a humbling experience I must admit... I guess the power of leverage works both ways, never did I expect it to work against me this time... Nevertheless, here's some news on the FX markets

Today's Events

JPY : Despite today's higher than expected Tanken Survey figures, the market continued to sell the JPY. Still, it only proves that the probability of the BoJ rising rates will be higher.

EUR : I went short on the EUR today (not very smart of me) even though the market was anticipating a rate hike by the ECB, even though the UK PMI was firmer, even though most indicators painted a positive picture of Eurozone going forward

Tomorrow

0930
h : AUD - Retail Sales released. I am expecting a better than expected retail figure given the drop in oil prices as well as other factors

1345h : CHF - Swiss Consumer Price Index. Less than expected. Would recommend going short on the CHF

1700h : EUR - Eurozone unemplyment rate. Expectation holds that it will be slightly lesser than expected, compared to the previous month.

God Speed in the markets tomorrow