Thursday, September 18, 2008

Portfolio Performance : +29.29%

US Dollar Barometer stands at -3

Trade Recommendation : Sell USD/CHF

Bottomline : sold the dollar against the franc but it triggered my stop loss. Still early to call for a bottom for equities, but we are approaching one. Markets now questioning the value of the US dollar.

In When is money neutral under flexible exhange rates? by pekka Ahtiala, 2008 - the author studies the neutrality of money under flexible exchange rates in an extended Mundell Felming model.

The extended Mundell Fleming model is alive and well and continues to serve as a forecasting tool for most central banks and governments because it works empirically. The model suggests that under perfect capital mobility, monetary expansion is expansionary under flexible exchange rates, under the assumption of fixed prices. Under the extended Mundell Fleming model, it was shown that montary expansion is typically expansionary in the long run after being contractionary in the short run both for net creditors and net debtors.

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