Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Portfolio Performance : +20.95%

US Dollar Barometer : -2

Trade Recommendation : Short USD/CHF

Bottomline : Equities continue to struggle with momentum, Commodities might take a short term trend higher from here. Bond Rally might take a breather. Greenspan raised an interesting point yesterday on TV, he said that the fact that we have two US government sponsered enterprises functioning as public companies is a failure itself. He is right, the administration who came up with the idea of GSEs as listed companies failed to consider the extreme consequence of a company failure and its impact on shareholders. We can draw an analogy to Temasek owning stakes in listed companies on the Singapore exchange. As we know, Temasek has bought into a number of companies, even foreign banks that operate in Singapore. It is a well known fact that, on the basis that Temasek owns a portion of the company, the likelihood of the company failing in future is not probable unless Temasek runs out of capital (because Temasek will defend her investments). This is the "Temasek" premium built into the share prices of companies listed on SGX. The US Government, on the other hand, not until recently does not own stakes in Fannie and Freddie. I wonder if the whole mess would have happen if the US Government became a stakeholder in the GSEs, maybe they would be alerted earlier about the situation and stepped in faster. Perhaps Temasek did the right thing after all, by buying up shares in Singapore operating financial institutions.

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