Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Portfolio Performance : +5.75%

Actions : Long USD/CAD at 1.01845

Headline News

1. Germany sees 2009 federal budget deficit 10.5 billion euros vs 11.9 billion in 2008
2. Israel approves prisoner swap with Hezbollah, reopens crossing for goods to Gaza
3. WSJ highlighes Taiwan as investment opportunity
4. Japanese PM Fukuda approval rating higher by 2 points to 26 percent
5. Domestic exporters buying AUD/USD
6. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono popularity ratings have fallen because of the recent fuel price increase
7. Singapore May commercial bank loans S$256.91 billion vs S$203.80 billion
8. Singapore M3 S$323.81 billion versus S$296.95 billion a year ago
9. Malaysia may tweak its budget deficit for 2008
10. South Korea industrial production down 0.6 percent from April
11. Japan May housing starts lower by 6.5% from a year earlier
12. Japan May orders received by 50 largest contractors down 25.2% year on year
13. German May wholesale down by 0.8% year on year
14. FT says that cracks are appearing in Chinese discretionary spending
15. UK May mortgage approvals hit new record low of 42 000 vs April 58 000, lowest since March 2001
16. Euro Zone Provisional HICP higher by 4.0% versus 3.7% in May
17. Philippines sees inflation above 11% in June
18. Malaysia Broad Money supply higher by 12.4% year on year
19. Thai Inflation could top 10% in July
20. Chicago Purchasing index 49.6 versus 49.1 in May


My expectation for the USD crosses

1. AUD : Negative
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive

Bottomline : I think that the overall environment is still nervous and a lot of people are not optimistic over the USD, I am long CAD at this point

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