Saturday, July 12, 2008

Portfolio Performance : +1.91%

Actions : I have closed my GBP/USD trade after the USD weakened on a volatile equity market

Headline News

1. OPEC cuts world oil demand forecast, cites energy efficiency
2. China 1H actual Foreign Direct investment higher by 45.5% year on year
3. Malaysia May Industrial Output 2.5% versus 3.4% expected
4. Japan revised May industrial output higher by 2.8% versus 2.9% rise
5. Japan consumer confidence index at 32.6 in June from 33.9 in May
6. German June wholesale price index higher by 0.9% from May, higher by 8.9% year on year
7. Russian central bank raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 11.00%
8. OECD May Composite Leading indicator 97.2 vs 97.7 in April
9. OPEC cartel said that it might need to slow investment in its oilfield as consuming countries reduce their oil demand through conservation and increasingly turning to alternatives such as biofuels
10. US May trade deficit narrows to 59.8 Billion USD vs 62.1 Billion USD expected
11. US June non oil import prices higher by 78.6% over year, the largest increase in 5 years
12. Michigan consumer sentiment in July rose to 56.6 versus 56 expected

My expectation for the USD crosses

1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive

Bottomline : Equity market volatility have contributed to a weaker US dollar, the market seems to be a bit tired of short selling stocks for the moment. I expect the market to quieten down for a while before we start another round of financial maket turmoil.

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