Thursday, July 17, 2008

Portfolio Performance : +2.57%

Actions : Did some intraday trading on the EUR/USD pair

Headline News

1. Italy June oil consumption down 6.1%
2. Spain hopes to issue up to 2.2 billion euros in 10 year bonds
3. ABC Consumer Comfort Index -41 unchanged from previous week
4. Japan's May tetiary index down 0.2% from April
5. Australia's top central banker on Wednesday said it now looked more likely that domestic demand would slow significantly as desired, and there was a good chance inflation could be brought down into its target range over time
6. Philippines June budget surplus at PHP 769 million, which brought the fiscal deficit in 1H 2008 to PHP 18 billion, down from PHP 41 billion deficit in the same period last year
7. German CPI higher by 3.3% year on year
8. European car registrations lower by 7.9% year on year
9. Russia June industry output +0.9% year on year down from +6.7% year on year in May
10. Hong Kong Government announces 11 Billion HKD inflation relief package
11. Dutch May Trade Surplus 2.9 billion Euros, higher by 0.5% year on year
12. UK June Claimant count higher by 15,500, biggest rise since Dec 1992
13. France June Large retail sales flat vs may, higher by 5.3% year on year
14. US June CPI higher by 1.1% vs 0.8% expected
15. US June CPI largest monthly rise since September 2005
16. Foreign investors were net sellers of US securities in May, failing to provide the capital inflows needed to offset the trade deficit
17. US industrial production higher by 0.5% vs no change expected

My expectation for the USD crosses

1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Negative

Bottomline : The market is getting less bearish, probably tired of shorting counters. I expect a quiet market moving forward. Overall, the market still does not like the US dollar very much, but disliking it to a lesser degree

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