Portfolio Performance : +8.57%
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Postive
5. JPY : Neutral
6. CHF : Negative
Bottomline : Did some intraday trades on the EUR/USD. The US dollar strength in the market is becoming apparent, which should help support the US market
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +8.08%
Headline News
1. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David McCormick said that the effects of speculation or currency depreciation on oil prices are "relatively minor in comparison" to supply and demand fundamentals that have been building for more than a decade
2. Spain permits issued for building new houses fall 57% in the year to May from a year earlier, according to the College of Architects
3. Rio Tinto, the world's third largest miner said that it will spend $2.15 billion on expanding its Corumba iron ore mine in Brazil
4. Japan June industrial output down 2% from May
5. Australia's housing industry looks set to weaken further as building approvals declined another 0.7% in June, approvals are now 7.8% lower from a year earlier
6. Japan's auto makers rose 4.5% to 1.03 million vehicles from a year earlier
7. Germany's June new machinery falls 5% year on year
8. Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator 89.5 vs 94.8 in June
9. The number of three to five star hotels and resorts in Vietnam shot up by almost half in 3 years.
10. US ADP Private Payrolls was higher by 9000, vs market expectation of a drop of 60000
11. Crude oil stocks -0.1M to 295.2M barrels
12. Gasoline stocks -3.5M to 213.6M barrels
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Neutral
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Neutral
5. JPY : Negative
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : I expect the US dollar to gain some strength, the US dollar bears have somehow taken centerstage once again.
Headline News
1. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David McCormick said that the effects of speculation or currency depreciation on oil prices are "relatively minor in comparison" to supply and demand fundamentals that have been building for more than a decade
2. Spain permits issued for building new houses fall 57% in the year to May from a year earlier, according to the College of Architects
3. Rio Tinto, the world's third largest miner said that it will spend $2.15 billion on expanding its Corumba iron ore mine in Brazil
4. Japan June industrial output down 2% from May
5. Australia's housing industry looks set to weaken further as building approvals declined another 0.7% in June, approvals are now 7.8% lower from a year earlier
6. Japan's auto makers rose 4.5% to 1.03 million vehicles from a year earlier
7. Germany's June new machinery falls 5% year on year
8. Euro Zone Economic Sentiment Indicator 89.5 vs 94.8 in June
9. The number of three to five star hotels and resorts in Vietnam shot up by almost half in 3 years.
10. US ADP Private Payrolls was higher by 9000, vs market expectation of a drop of 60000
11. Crude oil stocks -0.1M to 295.2M barrels
12. Gasoline stocks -3.5M to 213.6M barrels
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Neutral
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Neutral
5. JPY : Negative
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : I expect the US dollar to gain some strength, the US dollar bears have somehow taken centerstage once again.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Portfolio Performance : + 7.95%
Actions : Did some intra-day trading on the EUR/USD
Headline News
1. MISHKIN says FOMC should extend economic projections to five years
2. Fed Mishkin says FOMC should only change inflation consensus only when economy changes
3. Miskin says that an announced inflation goal would help foreign investors
4. The Bush Adminstration on Monday cut its budget deficit forecast for the current year but expanded it to a record $482 billion for 2009 as the weakening US economy slows revenues and spending remains high
5. The US Treasury Department announced today that it expects to borrow billions of dollars more in marketable debt this quarter than originally forecasted, in part due to increased outlays like the $150 billion fiscal stimulus program
6. Japan's June unemployment rate 4.1%, higher from May by 0.4%
7. Japan's June household spending lower by 1.8% year on year
8. Singapore State investor Temasek Holdings said on Tuesday it had increased its investments in Merrill Lynch as part of the US broker's latest fund-raising effort
9. Australia's quarterly survey measure of overall business conditions fell 7 points in the second quarter to 6 points, the lowest reading since 2001
10. Taiwan index of leading indicator was unchanged in June vs May
11. The Philippine central bank said on Tuesday it expected annual inflation to come in a range of 11.2-12%
12. German wages among employees and workers have increased an average of 3.5% in April compared with the same month last year
13. Dutch July Consumer Confidence falls to plus 2.4 from plus 5.3 in June
14. The Russian Central Bank injected 192.2 billion roubles of one-day funds into the banking system at a rate of 7.02% in its first auction of the day today
15. UK Mortgage approvals slump to 36,000, the lowest since the series began in 1993
16. The National Development and Reform Commission, China's top planning agency has published broad guidelines for economic reform - the government will study and speed up reforms to property tax and study and begin to levy an environmental preservation tax, speed up restructuring of the Agricultural Bank of China and China Development Bank, push for the establishment of a growth enterprise market where smaller companies can list and expand the issuance of corporate bonds and more
16. Bank of China said that its British subsidiary had bought 30% stake in Switzerland's Heritage Fund Management for 9 million Swiss Francs
17. German july preliminary CPI higher by 0.6% from June
18. US May S&P/Case Shiller Home Price index down 16.9% year on year
19. US July consumer confidence rises to 51.9 vs 50 expected
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Negative
4. CAD : Negative
5. JPY : Positive
6. CHF : Negative
Bottomline : I expect a very strong rebound in the US dollar, the equity market is expected to head higher.
Actions : Did some intra-day trading on the EUR/USD
Headline News
1. MISHKIN says FOMC should extend economic projections to five years
2. Fed Mishkin says FOMC should only change inflation consensus only when economy changes
3. Miskin says that an announced inflation goal would help foreign investors
4. The Bush Adminstration on Monday cut its budget deficit forecast for the current year but expanded it to a record $482 billion for 2009 as the weakening US economy slows revenues and spending remains high
5. The US Treasury Department announced today that it expects to borrow billions of dollars more in marketable debt this quarter than originally forecasted, in part due to increased outlays like the $150 billion fiscal stimulus program
6. Japan's June unemployment rate 4.1%, higher from May by 0.4%
7. Japan's June household spending lower by 1.8% year on year
8. Singapore State investor Temasek Holdings said on Tuesday it had increased its investments in Merrill Lynch as part of the US broker's latest fund-raising effort
9. Australia's quarterly survey measure of overall business conditions fell 7 points in the second quarter to 6 points, the lowest reading since 2001
10. Taiwan index of leading indicator was unchanged in June vs May
11. The Philippine central bank said on Tuesday it expected annual inflation to come in a range of 11.2-12%
12. German wages among employees and workers have increased an average of 3.5% in April compared with the same month last year
13. Dutch July Consumer Confidence falls to plus 2.4 from plus 5.3 in June
14. The Russian Central Bank injected 192.2 billion roubles of one-day funds into the banking system at a rate of 7.02% in its first auction of the day today
15. UK Mortgage approvals slump to 36,000, the lowest since the series began in 1993
16. The National Development and Reform Commission, China's top planning agency has published broad guidelines for economic reform - the government will study and speed up reforms to property tax and study and begin to levy an environmental preservation tax, speed up restructuring of the Agricultural Bank of China and China Development Bank, push for the establishment of a growth enterprise market where smaller companies can list and expand the issuance of corporate bonds and more
16. Bank of China said that its British subsidiary had bought 30% stake in Switzerland's Heritage Fund Management for 9 million Swiss Francs
17. German july preliminary CPI higher by 0.6% from June
18. US May S&P/Case Shiller Home Price index down 16.9% year on year
19. US July consumer confidence rises to 51.9 vs 50 expected
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Negative
4. CAD : Negative
5. JPY : Positive
6. CHF : Negative
Bottomline : I expect a very strong rebound in the US dollar, the equity market is expected to head higher.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +7.09%
Headline News
1. Approximately $17.7 billion in primary credit was outstanding as of Wednesday.
2. Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, the company formed to facilitate JP Morgan Chose acquisition of Bear Stearns totaled $29.1 billion, higher from $29 billion in the previous Wednesday
3. South Korea expanded 0.8% in the June quarter, the same pace as March and as expected by the market
4. Japan core CPI higher by 1.9% year on year, overall CPI higher by 2%
5. Singapore june factory output higher by 2.5% year on year, less than estimates
6. German import prices higher by 1.5% from May, higher by 8.9% year on year
7. Euro Zone June M3 higher by 9.9% year on year from 10.1% in March-May
8. Taiwan M2 money supply higher by 1.7% year on year
9. According to China, it is facing increasing challenges in maintaining fast and stable economic growth amid growing international uncertainties and domestic economic difficulties
10. US Durable goods orders rose unexpectedly in June as autos posted their largest monthly gain in almost a year
11. US late Michigan consumer sentiment rises to 61.2 vs 56.4 expected
12. New home sales fell to 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530 000 units, the lowest level since March.
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Neutral
3. GBP : Positive
4. CAD : Neutral
5. JPY : Neutral
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : Another quiet day for the market, I expect the market to trade the US dollar sideways.
Headline News
1. Approximately $17.7 billion in primary credit was outstanding as of Wednesday.
2. Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC, the company formed to facilitate JP Morgan Chose acquisition of Bear Stearns totaled $29.1 billion, higher from $29 billion in the previous Wednesday
3. South Korea expanded 0.8% in the June quarter, the same pace as March and as expected by the market
4. Japan core CPI higher by 1.9% year on year, overall CPI higher by 2%
5. Singapore june factory output higher by 2.5% year on year, less than estimates
6. German import prices higher by 1.5% from May, higher by 8.9% year on year
7. Euro Zone June M3 higher by 9.9% year on year from 10.1% in March-May
8. Taiwan M2 money supply higher by 1.7% year on year
9. According to China, it is facing increasing challenges in maintaining fast and stable economic growth amid growing international uncertainties and domestic economic difficulties
10. US Durable goods orders rose unexpectedly in June as autos posted their largest monthly gain in almost a year
11. US late Michigan consumer sentiment rises to 61.2 vs 56.4 expected
12. New home sales fell to 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 530 000 units, the lowest level since March.
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Neutral
3. GBP : Positive
4. CAD : Neutral
5. JPY : Neutral
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : Another quiet day for the market, I expect the market to trade the US dollar sideways.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +6.76%
Headline News
1. Fed Beige Book said that pace of economic activity slowed since last report
2. Beige Book sees elevated or increasing price pressures in all Fed districts
3. The Reserve Bank Governor Bollard said "Provided that the outlook for inflation continues to improve and there is no excessive exchange rate depreciation, we would expect to lower interest rates further" - this is the first rate cut since July 2003
4. Japan June Surplus 138.6B Yen vs 1.24 Trillion Yen a year earlier, on a 88.9% drop in exports (this is huge)
5. Vietnam's inflation in July estimated to hit an annual rate of 27.04%
6. Korean won rose as foreigners bought Korean stocks after a 33 day selling streak
7. OECD says Indonesia needs to improve the business environment and make better use of labour inputs to put the economy on a higher growth trajectory
8. Thailand central bank reiterated on Thursday its policy priority at the moment was maintaining monetary stability rather than economic growth
9. French July Business Climate Indicator 98 vs 101 in June
10. French Provisional July Service PMI 47 vs 50.1 in June
11. Spanish Q2 unemployment hits 3 year high of 10.4%
12. German July Provisional Service PMI 53.3 vs consensus of 51.4
13. Euro Zone May Current Account Deficit 7.3 billion Euros vs Surplus 1.5 Billion in April
14. German IFO Business assessment index 105.7 vs 108.3 in June
15. Euro Zone July manufacturing PMI falls to 46.9 from 49.6 in June
16. IFO says that july index results suggest Economic upswing coming to an end
17. Hong Kong June exports lower by 0.6% year on year vs higher by 10.3% in May
18. UK retail sales higher by 2.2%, the lowest since Feb 2006
19. US jobless claims +34K to 406K, 375K expected
20. US June existing home sales lower by 2.6% to 4.86 million
My expectation for the US dollar crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Neutral
6. AUD : Negative
Bottomline : Quiet market today. I expect the US dollar to gain in strength, this comes on the weakness of commodities.
Headline News
1. Fed Beige Book said that pace of economic activity slowed since last report
2. Beige Book sees elevated or increasing price pressures in all Fed districts
3. The Reserve Bank Governor Bollard said "Provided that the outlook for inflation continues to improve and there is no excessive exchange rate depreciation, we would expect to lower interest rates further" - this is the first rate cut since July 2003
4. Japan June Surplus 138.6B Yen vs 1.24 Trillion Yen a year earlier, on a 88.9% drop in exports (this is huge)
5. Vietnam's inflation in July estimated to hit an annual rate of 27.04%
6. Korean won rose as foreigners bought Korean stocks after a 33 day selling streak
7. OECD says Indonesia needs to improve the business environment and make better use of labour inputs to put the economy on a higher growth trajectory
8. Thailand central bank reiterated on Thursday its policy priority at the moment was maintaining monetary stability rather than economic growth
9. French July Business Climate Indicator 98 vs 101 in June
10. French Provisional July Service PMI 47 vs 50.1 in June
11. Spanish Q2 unemployment hits 3 year high of 10.4%
12. German July Provisional Service PMI 53.3 vs consensus of 51.4
13. Euro Zone May Current Account Deficit 7.3 billion Euros vs Surplus 1.5 Billion in April
14. German IFO Business assessment index 105.7 vs 108.3 in June
15. Euro Zone July manufacturing PMI falls to 46.9 from 49.6 in June
16. IFO says that july index results suggest Economic upswing coming to an end
17. Hong Kong June exports lower by 0.6% year on year vs higher by 10.3% in May
18. UK retail sales higher by 2.2%, the lowest since Feb 2006
19. US jobless claims +34K to 406K, 375K expected
20. US June existing home sales lower by 2.6% to 4.86 million
My expectation for the US dollar crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Neutral
6. AUD : Negative
Bottomline : Quiet market today. I expect the US dollar to gain in strength, this comes on the weakness of commodities.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +6.75%
Headline News
1. Fed Meeting Minutes showed that two Fed bankers favoured a rate hike in June, namely the Fed Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Dallas.
2. The minutes concluded that downside risks to the economy were outweighed by upside risks to inflation.
3. ABC Consumer Confidence Comfort Index -41 this week from -41 the previous week
4. ADB Economist Lee Jong Wha said that Singapore's appraoch to allow the SGD to appreciate is in the right direction, but should also boost fiscal spending
5. Australia Q2 Headline CPI higher by 4.5% year on year vs 4.3% consensus
6. Indonesia central bank said that inflation will remain the main concern for Indonesia over hte next 12-18 months, but a gradual and non-aggressive hike in interest rates ahead will be enought to contain inflation
7. Singapore June CPI higher by 7.5% year on year, below estimate of 8% year on year
8. French June consumption lower by 0.4% from May
9. Iran Vows no retreat in Nuclear Row
10. Spanish June Producer Price higher by 9% year on year
11. Taiwan June Exports higher by 9.27% year on year, vs 14.46% higher by May
12. Romania's consolidated budget deficit may reach 3% of GDP next year if the pension budget runs out of cash to fuel planned state pension hikes
13. UK June Mortgage Approvals slump to new all time low of 21,118
14. BOE kept interest rates unchanged
15. Euro Zone May Industrial Orders lower by 4.4% year on year
16. Malaysia CPI came in at 7.7% year on year vs expecatations of 6.8%
17. UK July Manufacturing business optimism -40 lowest since Oct 2001
18. Germany's Merkel says economic growth slowing, does not see a recession
19. Crude Inventories lower by 1.6M to 295.3M
My Expectation for the USD Crosses
1. EUR : Positive
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Neutral
6. AUD : Negative
Bottomline : Quiet trading day, I will not take any positions. Crude looks like it is cracking a little, as well as the other commodities, which might support equities.
Headline News
1. Fed Meeting Minutes showed that two Fed bankers favoured a rate hike in June, namely the Fed Reserve Bank of Kansas City and Dallas.
2. The minutes concluded that downside risks to the economy were outweighed by upside risks to inflation.
3. ABC Consumer Confidence Comfort Index -41 this week from -41 the previous week
4. ADB Economist Lee Jong Wha said that Singapore's appraoch to allow the SGD to appreciate is in the right direction, but should also boost fiscal spending
5. Australia Q2 Headline CPI higher by 4.5% year on year vs 4.3% consensus
6. Indonesia central bank said that inflation will remain the main concern for Indonesia over hte next 12-18 months, but a gradual and non-aggressive hike in interest rates ahead will be enought to contain inflation
7. Singapore June CPI higher by 7.5% year on year, below estimate of 8% year on year
8. French June consumption lower by 0.4% from May
9. Iran Vows no retreat in Nuclear Row
10. Spanish June Producer Price higher by 9% year on year
11. Taiwan June Exports higher by 9.27% year on year, vs 14.46% higher by May
12. Romania's consolidated budget deficit may reach 3% of GDP next year if the pension budget runs out of cash to fuel planned state pension hikes
13. UK June Mortgage Approvals slump to new all time low of 21,118
14. BOE kept interest rates unchanged
15. Euro Zone May Industrial Orders lower by 4.4% year on year
16. Malaysia CPI came in at 7.7% year on year vs expecatations of 6.8%
17. UK July Manufacturing business optimism -40 lowest since Oct 2001
18. Germany's Merkel says economic growth slowing, does not see a recession
19. Crude Inventories lower by 1.6M to 295.3M
My Expectation for the USD Crosses
1. EUR : Positive
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Neutral
6. AUD : Negative
Bottomline : Quiet trading day, I will not take any positions. Crude looks like it is cracking a little, as well as the other commodities, which might support equities.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +6.74%
Actions: Did some intraday trading on the EUR/USD
Headline News
1. Dow Futures plummet in after hours this morning on softer earnings from equities
2. Japan May all industries index higher by 0.4% from April
3. Malaysia's former economic czar and two time finance minister Daim said that lack of strong leadership and clear politics have confused both Malaysians and foreign investors.
4. ADB warns Asia moving too slowly to fight inflation
5. Japan supermarket sales lower by 0.9% from a year earlier
6. Italy July consumer confidence 95.8 vs 99.9 in June
7. South Korea oil product exports demand fall to lowest in nearly two years in June, down 6.5% from the previous year
8. Taiwan unemployment rate 3.95% vs 3.84% in May
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Midly Negative
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Positive
5. JPY : Midly Positive
6. CHF : Midly Positive
Bottomline : I expect the market to be slightly bearish on the US dollar, which means that commodities might be supported. I expect to see bearishness in the equity market dying off.
Actions: Did some intraday trading on the EUR/USD
Headline News
1. Dow Futures plummet in after hours this morning on softer earnings from equities
2. Japan May all industries index higher by 0.4% from April
3. Malaysia's former economic czar and two time finance minister Daim said that lack of strong leadership and clear politics have confused both Malaysians and foreign investors.
4. ADB warns Asia moving too slowly to fight inflation
5. Japan supermarket sales lower by 0.9% from a year earlier
6. Italy July consumer confidence 95.8 vs 99.9 in June
7. South Korea oil product exports demand fall to lowest in nearly two years in June, down 6.5% from the previous year
8. Taiwan unemployment rate 3.95% vs 3.84% in May
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Midly Negative
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Positive
5. JPY : Midly Positive
6. CHF : Midly Positive
Bottomline : I expect the market to be slightly bearish on the US dollar, which means that commodities might be supported. I expect to see bearishness in the equity market dying off.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +5.68%
Actions : Closed my short EUR/USD position, but might continue shorting EUR/USD as the pair heads higher later
Headline News
1. China's Wen says "sense of urgency" needed in managing inflation, growth
2. Major Chinese commercial banks had an average non-performing loan ratio of 6.1% at the end of June
3. Australia Q2 Producer Price Index higher 4.7% year on year vs 5.3% consensus
4. Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is likely to announce a cabinet reshuffle in a bid to reverse his dwindling public support
5. European Commission plans to tighten securitized loan rules
6. Hong Kong June CPI higher 6.1% year on year from 5.7% in May
7. US June leading Index -0.1% vs -0.2% in May
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I expect the bull run in the short term to soften, as most of the Bears take the US dollar lower
Actions : Closed my short EUR/USD position, but might continue shorting EUR/USD as the pair heads higher later
Headline News
1. China's Wen says "sense of urgency" needed in managing inflation, growth
2. Major Chinese commercial banks had an average non-performing loan ratio of 6.1% at the end of June
3. Australia Q2 Producer Price Index higher 4.7% year on year vs 5.3% consensus
4. Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is likely to announce a cabinet reshuffle in a bid to reverse his dwindling public support
5. European Commission plans to tighten securitized loan rules
6. Hong Kong June CPI higher 6.1% year on year from 5.7% in May
7. US June leading Index -0.1% vs -0.2% in May
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I expect the bull run in the short term to soften, as most of the Bears take the US dollar lower
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +5.6%
Actions : Fresh Short EUR/USD
Headline News
1. Swiss Authorities have received a formal request for help from the US IRS in connection with investigations into alleged tax evasion schemes at Swiss Bank UBS
2. Trichet is determined to bring inflation down to under 2%
3. Strong Selling on NZD emerges
4. Moody's downgrade Lehman Brothers to A2, outlook negative
5. NZ CPI jumps 1.6%, fastest pace since 1990
6. Malaysia's manufacturing sales in May rose 14.8% from a year earlier, on higher demand for petroleum and iron and steel products
7. Japan June Department Same Store Sales lower by 7.6% year on year
10. German June PPI higher by 0.9% from May
11. Moody's says that inflation may lead to adverse global inflation
12. Italy May industrial sales lower by 2.7% year on year
13. UK M4 Money Supply higher by 0.2% in June from May
14. Euro Zone May trade deficit 4.6 billion versus 2.5 billion surplus in April
15. India spot sugar gained on strong domestic demand
My expectations for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Negative
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : I feel that the market is getting less bearish, I expect the US dollar to slowly gain in strength.
Actions : Fresh Short EUR/USD
Headline News
1. Swiss Authorities have received a formal request for help from the US IRS in connection with investigations into alleged tax evasion schemes at Swiss Bank UBS
2. Trichet is determined to bring inflation down to under 2%
3. Strong Selling on NZD emerges
4. Moody's downgrade Lehman Brothers to A2, outlook negative
5. NZ CPI jumps 1.6%, fastest pace since 1990
6. Malaysia's manufacturing sales in May rose 14.8% from a year earlier, on higher demand for petroleum and iron and steel products
7. Japan June Department Same Store Sales lower by 7.6% year on year
10. German June PPI higher by 0.9% from May
11. Moody's says that inflation may lead to adverse global inflation
12. Italy May industrial sales lower by 2.7% year on year
13. UK M4 Money Supply higher by 0.2% in June from May
14. Euro Zone May trade deficit 4.6 billion versus 2.5 billion surplus in April
15. India spot sugar gained on strong domestic demand
My expectations for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Negative
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : I feel that the market is getting less bearish, I expect the US dollar to slowly gain in strength.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +2.57%
Actions : Did some intraday trading on the EUR/USD pair
Headline News
1. Italy June oil consumption down 6.1%
2. Spain hopes to issue up to 2.2 billion euros in 10 year bonds
3. ABC Consumer Comfort Index -41 unchanged from previous week
4. Japan's May tetiary index down 0.2% from April
5. Australia's top central banker on Wednesday said it now looked more likely that domestic demand would slow significantly as desired, and there was a good chance inflation could be brought down into its target range over time
6. Philippines June budget surplus at PHP 769 million, which brought the fiscal deficit in 1H 2008 to PHP 18 billion, down from PHP 41 billion deficit in the same period last year
7. German CPI higher by 3.3% year on year
8. European car registrations lower by 7.9% year on year
9. Russia June industry output +0.9% year on year down from +6.7% year on year in May
10. Hong Kong Government announces 11 Billion HKD inflation relief package
11. Dutch May Trade Surplus 2.9 billion Euros, higher by 0.5% year on year
12. UK June Claimant count higher by 15,500, biggest rise since Dec 1992
13. France June Large retail sales flat vs may, higher by 5.3% year on year
14. US June CPI higher by 1.1% vs 0.8% expected
15. US June CPI largest monthly rise since September 2005
16. Foreign investors were net sellers of US securities in May, failing to provide the capital inflows needed to offset the trade deficit
17. US industrial production higher by 0.5% vs no change expected
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : The market is getting less bearish, probably tired of shorting counters. I expect a quiet market moving forward. Overall, the market still does not like the US dollar very much, but disliking it to a lesser degree
Actions : Did some intraday trading on the EUR/USD pair
Headline News
1. Italy June oil consumption down 6.1%
2. Spain hopes to issue up to 2.2 billion euros in 10 year bonds
3. ABC Consumer Comfort Index -41 unchanged from previous week
4. Japan's May tetiary index down 0.2% from April
5. Australia's top central banker on Wednesday said it now looked more likely that domestic demand would slow significantly as desired, and there was a good chance inflation could be brought down into its target range over time
6. Philippines June budget surplus at PHP 769 million, which brought the fiscal deficit in 1H 2008 to PHP 18 billion, down from PHP 41 billion deficit in the same period last year
7. German CPI higher by 3.3% year on year
8. European car registrations lower by 7.9% year on year
9. Russia June industry output +0.9% year on year down from +6.7% year on year in May
10. Hong Kong Government announces 11 Billion HKD inflation relief package
11. Dutch May Trade Surplus 2.9 billion Euros, higher by 0.5% year on year
12. UK June Claimant count higher by 15,500, biggest rise since Dec 1992
13. France June Large retail sales flat vs may, higher by 5.3% year on year
14. US June CPI higher by 1.1% vs 0.8% expected
15. US June CPI largest monthly rise since September 2005
16. Foreign investors were net sellers of US securities in May, failing to provide the capital inflows needed to offset the trade deficit
17. US industrial production higher by 0.5% vs no change expected
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : The market is getting less bearish, probably tired of shorting counters. I expect a quiet market moving forward. Overall, the market still does not like the US dollar very much, but disliking it to a lesser degree
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +1.93%
Headline News
1. Iran top nuclear negotiator and EU foreign policy chief will discuss a "timetable" for future negatiations to break the deadlock in the atomic crisis
2. RBA Minutes shows central bank's stance on inflation
3. RBA says that monetary policy cooling demand
4. Bank of Japan sees higher inflation, slower growth
5. Singapore May retail sales higher by 4.8% year on year versus forecast of 6.5%
6. BOJ leaves rates unchanged
7. French May current account surplus 2.5 billion versus 3 billion Euros
8. Philippines overseas workers remittances higher by 15.6% in May
9. Thai PM offers tax cuts, handouts to spur economy
10. Dutch May retail sales higher by 7.8% year on year
11. UK June CPI higher by 3.8% from a year ago vs 3.6% consensus
12. German ZEW Economic expectations index -63.9 vs -52.4 in June
13. US June Core inflation matches May, fastest annual gain since 1991
14. US Fed Empire State Manufacturing -4.92 vs -8.68 in June, better than expected
15. US inventory to sales ratio at record low of 1.24
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Negative
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : The market has got carried away with equity shorts, I still think that the market will continue not to like the US dollar
Headline News
1. Iran top nuclear negotiator and EU foreign policy chief will discuss a "timetable" for future negatiations to break the deadlock in the atomic crisis
2. RBA Minutes shows central bank's stance on inflation
3. RBA says that monetary policy cooling demand
4. Bank of Japan sees higher inflation, slower growth
5. Singapore May retail sales higher by 4.8% year on year versus forecast of 6.5%
6. BOJ leaves rates unchanged
7. French May current account surplus 2.5 billion versus 3 billion Euros
8. Philippines overseas workers remittances higher by 15.6% in May
9. Thai PM offers tax cuts, handouts to spur economy
10. Dutch May retail sales higher by 7.8% year on year
11. UK June CPI higher by 3.8% from a year ago vs 3.6% consensus
12. German ZEW Economic expectations index -63.9 vs -52.4 in June
13. US June Core inflation matches May, fastest annual gain since 1991
14. US Fed Empire State Manufacturing -4.92 vs -8.68 in June, better than expected
15. US inventory to sales ratio at record low of 1.24
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Negative
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : The market has got carried away with equity shorts, I still think that the market will continue not to like the US dollar
Monday, July 14, 2008
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +1.91%
Actions : I have closed my GBP/USD trade after the USD weakened on a volatile equity market
Headline News
1. OPEC cuts world oil demand forecast, cites energy efficiency
2. China 1H actual Foreign Direct investment higher by 45.5% year on year
3. Malaysia May Industrial Output 2.5% versus 3.4% expected
4. Japan revised May industrial output higher by 2.8% versus 2.9% rise
5. Japan consumer confidence index at 32.6 in June from 33.9 in May
6. German June wholesale price index higher by 0.9% from May, higher by 8.9% year on year
7. Russian central bank raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 11.00%
8. OECD May Composite Leading indicator 97.2 vs 97.7 in April
9. OPEC cartel said that it might need to slow investment in its oilfield as consuming countries reduce their oil demand through conservation and increasingly turning to alternatives such as biofuels
10. US May trade deficit narrows to 59.8 Billion USD vs 62.1 Billion USD expected
11. US June non oil import prices higher by 78.6% over year, the largest increase in 5 years
12. Michigan consumer sentiment in July rose to 56.6 versus 56 expected
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : Equity market volatility have contributed to a weaker US dollar, the market seems to be a bit tired of short selling stocks for the moment. I expect the market to quieten down for a while before we start another round of financial maket turmoil.
Actions : I have closed my GBP/USD trade after the USD weakened on a volatile equity market
Headline News
1. OPEC cuts world oil demand forecast, cites energy efficiency
2. China 1H actual Foreign Direct investment higher by 45.5% year on year
3. Malaysia May Industrial Output 2.5% versus 3.4% expected
4. Japan revised May industrial output higher by 2.8% versus 2.9% rise
5. Japan consumer confidence index at 32.6 in June from 33.9 in May
6. German June wholesale price index higher by 0.9% from May, higher by 8.9% year on year
7. Russian central bank raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 11.00%
8. OECD May Composite Leading indicator 97.2 vs 97.7 in April
9. OPEC cartel said that it might need to slow investment in its oilfield as consuming countries reduce their oil demand through conservation and increasingly turning to alternatives such as biofuels
10. US May trade deficit narrows to 59.8 Billion USD vs 62.1 Billion USD expected
11. US June non oil import prices higher by 78.6% over year, the largest increase in 5 years
12. Michigan consumer sentiment in July rose to 56.6 versus 56 expected
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : Equity market volatility have contributed to a weaker US dollar, the market seems to be a bit tired of short selling stocks for the moment. I expect the market to quieten down for a while before we start another round of financial maket turmoil.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Portfolio Performance : -2.39%
Headline News
1. India's Ministry of Agriculture siad that the country's total food grain production for fiscal 2007-2008 has reached 230.67 million tonnes. Wheat production is expected to rise 3.42% year on year and rice production by 3.3%
2. Japan's June corporate goods price index higher by 5.6% year on year
3. Japan's May current account surplus -5.9% year on year
4. Singapore GDP higher by 1.9% year on year, which was below forecast (this is going to be splashed on the front page on the media tomorrow)
5. Australia June unemployment rate 4.2% versus 4.3% consensus
6. China 1H soybean imports higher by 24.4% year on year
7. China 1H oil product imports higher by 16.4% year on year
8. France May industrial output lower by 2.6% vs April
9. Dutch May industrial sales higher by 6% year on year
10. June Halifax house prices lower by 6.1% year on year (I think traders are going to sell the GBP on this)
11. Realtytrac said that US foreclosures are lower by 3% from May in June, but higher by 53% year on year
12. Bank of England leaves rates on hold at 5%
13. US jobless claims lower by 58 000 to 346 000, but continuing claims rose 91 000 to 3.202M
14. A defence analyst said that Iran had doctored photographs of missile firing and exaggerated the capabilities of the weapons
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : I am still keeping the Long GBP/USD position. I expect the equity market to soften further and the US dollar to continue to weaken
Headline News
1. India's Ministry of Agriculture siad that the country's total food grain production for fiscal 2007-2008 has reached 230.67 million tonnes. Wheat production is expected to rise 3.42% year on year and rice production by 3.3%
2. Japan's June corporate goods price index higher by 5.6% year on year
3. Japan's May current account surplus -5.9% year on year
4. Singapore GDP higher by 1.9% year on year, which was below forecast (this is going to be splashed on the front page on the media tomorrow)
5. Australia June unemployment rate 4.2% versus 4.3% consensus
6. China 1H soybean imports higher by 24.4% year on year
7. China 1H oil product imports higher by 16.4% year on year
8. France May industrial output lower by 2.6% vs April
9. Dutch May industrial sales higher by 6% year on year
10. June Halifax house prices lower by 6.1% year on year (I think traders are going to sell the GBP on this)
11. Realtytrac said that US foreclosures are lower by 3% from May in June, but higher by 53% year on year
12. Bank of England leaves rates on hold at 5%
13. US jobless claims lower by 58 000 to 346 000, but continuing claims rose 91 000 to 3.202M
14. A defence analyst said that Iran had doctored photographs of missile firing and exaggerated the capabilities of the weapons
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : I am still keeping the Long GBP/USD position. I expect the equity market to soften further and the US dollar to continue to weaken
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Portfolio Performance : -1.95%
Headline News
1. Fed's Lacker sees positive growth in 08, warns of unacceptable high inflation
2. Russia threatens to react with military force against US missile shield
3. American consumer credit rise $7.78 billion, mostly the use of credit cards
4. US ABC consumer confidence -41 from -43 in the previous week
5. Japan's May core private sector machinery orders higher by 10.4% from April
6. Australia consumer confidence hits 16 year low in July
7. Malaysia says that CPI may exceed 6%
8. Iran Test fires nine missiles
9. German current account surplus 7.5 billion euros vs 15.5 billion in April
10. The European Union agreed in principle yesterday to publish weekly oil stock data, in what ministers described as an attempt to inject more transparency to a market where prices are regularly reaching new highs.
11. Trichet says that Euro zone growth moderate but ongoing
12. US crude oil stocks fell to 293.9M barrels
13. Gasoline stocks gained 0.9M to 211.8M
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : I am still holding on to the long GBP/USD trade. The US dollar is weakening, but I think the market is still looking for a direction
Headline News
1. Fed's Lacker sees positive growth in 08, warns of unacceptable high inflation
2. Russia threatens to react with military force against US missile shield
3. American consumer credit rise $7.78 billion, mostly the use of credit cards
4. US ABC consumer confidence -41 from -43 in the previous week
5. Japan's May core private sector machinery orders higher by 10.4% from April
6. Australia consumer confidence hits 16 year low in July
7. Malaysia says that CPI may exceed 6%
8. Iran Test fires nine missiles
9. German current account surplus 7.5 billion euros vs 15.5 billion in April
10. The European Union agreed in principle yesterday to publish weekly oil stock data, in what ministers described as an attempt to inject more transparency to a market where prices are regularly reaching new highs.
11. Trichet says that Euro zone growth moderate but ongoing
12. US crude oil stocks fell to 293.9M barrels
13. Gasoline stocks gained 0.9M to 211.8M
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : I am still holding on to the long GBP/USD trade. The US dollar is weakening, but I think the market is still looking for a direction
Portfolio Performance : -5.16%
Headline News
1. Bank Sector Tracker hit all time low as credit concerns continue
2. The British government said on Monday that it would slow the expansion of biofuels following a report, which they said could increase greehouse gases and food prices
3. Japan June Bank Lending higher by 2% year on year
4. Singapore Sembcorp Marine wins $565 million Rig Order
5. Monster Index for Europe came in flat - jobless stable in Europe
6. Number of Japanese coporate bankruptcies rose 7.1% in June from May
7. Philippines increases transport fares as fuel costs soar
8. UK value of home loans down 44% from a year ago
9. UK May House prices higher by 3.7% year on year from 4.9% growth in April
10. Leading German think tank said that the European construction sector is headed for a sharp slowdown
11. US May Wholesale inventories higher by 0.8% vs 0.7% expected
12. US May pending home sales index fall 4.7% to 84.7 vs 86.4 expected
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : The equity market is set to rally, which builds the case for a stronger USD. Commodities might be pressure in the short term but I will read too much into a selloff yet. I am still holding on to my long GBP /USD trade
Headline News
1. Bank Sector Tracker hit all time low as credit concerns continue
2. The British government said on Monday that it would slow the expansion of biofuels following a report, which they said could increase greehouse gases and food prices
3. Japan June Bank Lending higher by 2% year on year
4. Singapore Sembcorp Marine wins $565 million Rig Order
5. Monster Index for Europe came in flat - jobless stable in Europe
6. Number of Japanese coporate bankruptcies rose 7.1% in June from May
7. Philippines increases transport fares as fuel costs soar
8. UK value of home loans down 44% from a year ago
9. UK May House prices higher by 3.7% year on year from 4.9% growth in April
10. Leading German think tank said that the European construction sector is headed for a sharp slowdown
11. US May Wholesale inventories higher by 0.8% vs 0.7% expected
12. US May pending home sales index fall 4.7% to 84.7 vs 86.4 expected
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : The equity market is set to rally, which builds the case for a stronger USD. Commodities might be pressure in the short term but I will read too much into a selloff yet. I am still holding on to my long GBP /USD trade
Friday, July 04, 2008
Portfolio Performance : -0.6%
Headline News
1. Fed's Miskin said that high commodity prices could take a toll on the economy
2. Spanish PM sees "serious difficulties for economy, no recession"
3. Bosnian national airline seeks strategic investors
4. The UK Times reported that "shock" figures from Marks and Spencer that sales have fallen by 5% in the past three months has fueled fears that the consumer slump will develop into a "severe consumer slump"
5. Swiss consumer price index +2.9% versus June forecast of 3.1%
6. Paulson says that biggest focus is economic downturn
7. Spain June services index is lowest recorded for any Euro Zone PM (this is serious)
8. Spain Service PMI in June is lowest in 9 year history
9. Dutch Q1 revised GDP higher by 3.3%
10. French June PMI at 50.1 lowest since 2003
11. Euro Zone Service PMI for June revised lower to 49.1 from 49.5
12. Hong Kong Retail Sales higher by 12.9% YoY
13.UK CIPS June Services PMI 47.1, lowest since Oct 2001
14. BOE survey shows that credit terms worsened for both households and corporates in Q2
15. Euro Zone Retail sales higher by 1.2% ver April in May, higher by 2% YoY
16. US nonfarm payroll -62000 vs -60000 expected in June
Bottomline : I am still long on the GBP, the ECB hike interest rates to 4.25%, but Trichet was more dovish than expected.
Headline News
1. Fed's Miskin said that high commodity prices could take a toll on the economy
2. Spanish PM sees "serious difficulties for economy, no recession"
3. Bosnian national airline seeks strategic investors
4. The UK Times reported that "shock" figures from Marks and Spencer that sales have fallen by 5% in the past three months has fueled fears that the consumer slump will develop into a "severe consumer slump"
5. Swiss consumer price index +2.9% versus June forecast of 3.1%
6. Paulson says that biggest focus is economic downturn
7. Spain June services index is lowest recorded for any Euro Zone PM (this is serious)
8. Spain Service PMI in June is lowest in 9 year history
9. Dutch Q1 revised GDP higher by 3.3%
10. French June PMI at 50.1 lowest since 2003
11. Euro Zone Service PMI for June revised lower to 49.1 from 49.5
12. Hong Kong Retail Sales higher by 12.9% YoY
13.UK CIPS June Services PMI 47.1, lowest since Oct 2001
14. BOE survey shows that credit terms worsened for both households and corporates in Q2
15. Euro Zone Retail sales higher by 1.2% ver April in May, higher by 2% YoY
16. US nonfarm payroll -62000 vs -60000 expected in June
Bottomline : I am still long on the GBP, the ECB hike interest rates to 4.25%, but Trichet was more dovish than expected.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +14.17%
Actions : I bought GBP at 1.9922
Headline News
1. Denmark in recession after first quarter contraction
2. China questions Australia on Investment Curbs
3. The Reserve bank of Australia index of commodity prices jumped 7.9 percent in June on a huge increase in coal and ore prices
4. Japan monetary base higher by 0.4% from a year earlier
5. China May consumer confidence rises to 94.3 vs 94 in April
6. Indonesia fuel subsidy expected to exceed $21.7 billion if oil averages $140 this year
7. Philippine Central Bank sees inflation peaking in Q3, softening in 09
8. Spain jobless rises by 37 000 vs 15 000 in May
9. Germany new machinery plant orders down 12 percent year on year
10. UK June construction PMI 38.8 vs 43.9 in May
11. Euro Zone May PPI higher by 1.2 percent, higher by 7.1% year on year
12. OECD says that unemployment starting to rise as growth slows
13. US Challenger June Layoff intentions 81 755 vs May 103 522
14. Singapore PMI reverted to growth with orders from the domestic market rising
15. US May Factory Orders higher by 0.6% - highest level on record
My expectations for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : Market volatility has picked up, I expect the USD to depreciate and bought the GBP
Actions : I bought GBP at 1.9922
Headline News
1. Denmark in recession after first quarter contraction
2. China questions Australia on Investment Curbs
3. The Reserve bank of Australia index of commodity prices jumped 7.9 percent in June on a huge increase in coal and ore prices
4. Japan monetary base higher by 0.4% from a year earlier
5. China May consumer confidence rises to 94.3 vs 94 in April
6. Indonesia fuel subsidy expected to exceed $21.7 billion if oil averages $140 this year
7. Philippine Central Bank sees inflation peaking in Q3, softening in 09
8. Spain jobless rises by 37 000 vs 15 000 in May
9. Germany new machinery plant orders down 12 percent year on year
10. UK June construction PMI 38.8 vs 43.9 in May
11. Euro Zone May PPI higher by 1.2 percent, higher by 7.1% year on year
12. OECD says that unemployment starting to rise as growth slows
13. US Challenger June Layoff intentions 81 755 vs May 103 522
14. Singapore PMI reverted to growth with orders from the domestic market rising
15. US May Factory Orders higher by 0.6% - highest level on record
My expectations for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : Market volatility has picked up, I expect the USD to depreciate and bought the GBP
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Portfolio Performance : + 13.98
Actions : The CAD trade helped the performance of the portfolio, the trade closed at the profit target of 31 PIPs
Headline News
1. Paulson is on a five day trip through Europe, working with European leaders and Russian leaders on how policy makers need to re think on how to deal with failed firms. (I have to admire this guy, he really has fire in his belly and is very persistant at getting deals done. Great spirit from an ex IB)
2. Morgan Stanley Places Lehman Brothers at Overweight
3. Bank of Korea says that GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2008
4. Bank of Korea says that CPI will rise by 4.8% in 2008
5. Manufacturing activity in Australia continued to slow in June as production and new orders felt the impact of higher interest rates and easing global conditions
6. Japan Tankan declined but better than expected
7. China Manufacturing PMI 52 vs 53.3
8. New Home Sales fall 5% in May
9. Singapore Q2 private residential prices higher by 0.4 percent from Q1
10. RBA leaves interest rate unchanged at 7.25%
11. Japan June new vehicle sales lower by 3.6% from a year earlier
12. Ducth PMI 51.1 vs 51.5 in May
13. German May retail sales higher by 1.3% from April
14. UK House prices lower by 0.9% in June from May
15. Indonesia June CPI higher by 2.46% from May, higher by 11.03% year on year
16. Indonesia May exports higher by 17.5% from April
17. German adjusted jobless lower by 38 000 from May
18. Euro Zone May unemployment 7.2% unchanged from April
19. US June ISM Manufacturing index rise to 50.2 vs 48.7 expected
My Expectations for the USD Crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think the market is getting a bit tired of selling the USD, I expect the market to pause and volatility to decrease
Actions : The CAD trade helped the performance of the portfolio, the trade closed at the profit target of 31 PIPs
Headline News
1. Paulson is on a five day trip through Europe, working with European leaders and Russian leaders on how policy makers need to re think on how to deal with failed firms. (I have to admire this guy, he really has fire in his belly and is very persistant at getting deals done. Great spirit from an ex IB)
2. Morgan Stanley Places Lehman Brothers at Overweight
3. Bank of Korea says that GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2008
4. Bank of Korea says that CPI will rise by 4.8% in 2008
5. Manufacturing activity in Australia continued to slow in June as production and new orders felt the impact of higher interest rates and easing global conditions
6. Japan Tankan declined but better than expected
7. China Manufacturing PMI 52 vs 53.3
8. New Home Sales fall 5% in May
9. Singapore Q2 private residential prices higher by 0.4 percent from Q1
10. RBA leaves interest rate unchanged at 7.25%
11. Japan June new vehicle sales lower by 3.6% from a year earlier
12. Ducth PMI 51.1 vs 51.5 in May
13. German May retail sales higher by 1.3% from April
14. UK House prices lower by 0.9% in June from May
15. Indonesia June CPI higher by 2.46% from May, higher by 11.03% year on year
16. Indonesia May exports higher by 17.5% from April
17. German adjusted jobless lower by 38 000 from May
18. Euro Zone May unemployment 7.2% unchanged from April
19. US June ISM Manufacturing index rise to 50.2 vs 48.7 expected
My Expectations for the USD Crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think the market is getting a bit tired of selling the USD, I expect the market to pause and volatility to decrease
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +5.75%
Actions : Long USD/CAD at 1.01845
Headline News
1. Germany sees 2009 federal budget deficit 10.5 billion euros vs 11.9 billion in 2008
2. Israel approves prisoner swap with Hezbollah, reopens crossing for goods to Gaza
3. WSJ highlighes Taiwan as investment opportunity
4. Japanese PM Fukuda approval rating higher by 2 points to 26 percent
5. Domestic exporters buying AUD/USD
6. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono popularity ratings have fallen because of the recent fuel price increase
7. Singapore May commercial bank loans S$256.91 billion vs S$203.80 billion
8. Singapore M3 S$323.81 billion versus S$296.95 billion a year ago
9. Malaysia may tweak its budget deficit for 2008
10. South Korea industrial production down 0.6 percent from April
11. Japan May housing starts lower by 6.5% from a year earlier
12. Japan May orders received by 50 largest contractors down 25.2% year on year
13. German May wholesale down by 0.8% year on year
14. FT says that cracks are appearing in Chinese discretionary spending
15. UK May mortgage approvals hit new record low of 42 000 vs April 58 000, lowest since March 2001
16. Euro Zone Provisional HICP higher by 4.0% versus 3.7% in May
17. Philippines sees inflation above 11% in June
18. Malaysia Broad Money supply higher by 12.4% year on year
19. Thai Inflation could top 10% in July
20. Chicago Purchasing index 49.6 versus 49.1 in May
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Negative
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think that the overall environment is still nervous and a lot of people are not optimistic over the USD, I am long CAD at this point
Actions : Long USD/CAD at 1.01845
Headline News
1. Germany sees 2009 federal budget deficit 10.5 billion euros vs 11.9 billion in 2008
2. Israel approves prisoner swap with Hezbollah, reopens crossing for goods to Gaza
3. WSJ highlighes Taiwan as investment opportunity
4. Japanese PM Fukuda approval rating higher by 2 points to 26 percent
5. Domestic exporters buying AUD/USD
6. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono popularity ratings have fallen because of the recent fuel price increase
7. Singapore May commercial bank loans S$256.91 billion vs S$203.80 billion
8. Singapore M3 S$323.81 billion versus S$296.95 billion a year ago
9. Malaysia may tweak its budget deficit for 2008
10. South Korea industrial production down 0.6 percent from April
11. Japan May housing starts lower by 6.5% from a year earlier
12. Japan May orders received by 50 largest contractors down 25.2% year on year
13. German May wholesale down by 0.8% year on year
14. FT says that cracks are appearing in Chinese discretionary spending
15. UK May mortgage approvals hit new record low of 42 000 vs April 58 000, lowest since March 2001
16. Euro Zone Provisional HICP higher by 4.0% versus 3.7% in May
17. Philippines sees inflation above 11% in June
18. Malaysia Broad Money supply higher by 12.4% year on year
19. Thai Inflation could top 10% in July
20. Chicago Purchasing index 49.6 versus 49.1 in May
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Negative
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think that the overall environment is still nervous and a lot of people are not optimistic over the USD, I am long CAD at this point
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)