Friday, December 08, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date : 4 Dec 06) : 1.27479%

Yesterday

EUR - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said markets should not interpret his comments at today's ECB news conference as pointing to an interest rate hike in February.
Trichet told the news conference that the ECB needs to act 'in a firm and timely manner' to control inflation. 'Looking ahead, acting in a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability in the medium term is warranted,' he said. But Trichet dropped his previous reference to the need 'to further withdraw monetary accommodation' if the economic recovery continues in line with ECB expectations. The ECB has hiked rates once every two months in the second half of this year, culminating in a further hike in the central bank's main rate to 3.50 pct today.
Maintaining this pace of monetary tightening would point to a further rate hike in February.

GBP - BoE kept rates unchanged yesterday. This could be a signal of less than bullish data ahead.

NZD - The Kiwi found renewed strength on the back of RBNZ rate decision which meant leaving the cash rate at 7.25%. the accompanying statement saw hawkish comments by RBNZ's Bollard that said "Further tightening cannot be ruled out, and any policy easing still considerable way away." So for now the kiwi carry trades lives on, but it should only be considered more attractive levels to short NZD against pretty much everything as we believe that 2007 will be the year that the NZD finally sees some significant downside correction.

JPY - Downward revisions in third quarter GDP is not likely to sway the Bank of Japan from deciding on an early rate hike either this month or in the first quarter of next year, but its policy stance could change, depending on the outcome of next week's Tankan survey, economists said.
They said it is also far from clear whether the central bank can continue its rate adjustments at a measured pace -- or even when it can make a third rate increase after the next one -- given that US economy is slowing and is taking the Japanese economy along with it.

Later

USD (Neutral) - Traders eagerly anticipating the jobs data later. A dovish report could trigger much EUR buying.

EUR (Bullish)

JPY ( Neutral)

NZD (Bullish)

1900h - EUR : German Industrial Production

1900h - EUR : Euro Zone OECD Economic Leading Indicators

2130h - USD : Change in Non Farm Payrolls / Unemployment Rate


Technicals

Long GBP/USD at 1.9740

Long EUR/USD at 1.3415

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