Monday, December 04, 2006

Fund Performance per day (inception date : 04 Dec 06) : 0%

Today

AUD - (neutral) : AUD Q3 Company Gross Profits were Up 0.6%, Building Approvals were down 7.4% from September. Looks like the RBA will be keeping rates.

JPY - (neutral) : The latest quarterly government survey showed that spending on building factories and upgrading production facilities continued to grow in the past quarter but at a slower rate than the record-breaking pace of the previous three months, which could prompt the government to downgrade GDP data for the period, analysts said. But they also stressed that despite moderation in the growth pace of corporate capital spending, the quarterly survey underscored the solidness of the corporate sector, which had underpinned the Japanese economy over the past few years.

EUR - (Correction expected but Still Bullish overall) : Spain's jobless data were up 1.5% MoM but 3.4% down YoY. UK's Construction PMI is 54.8 down from the 2.5 year high of 58.1 in Oct. Traders still feel the figures are not sufficient enough to push to GBP/EUR to the last support level.

EUR - ECB is not sure whether to rise rates or keep them as they are. Eurozone borrowing costs are almost certain to rise by another quarter-point this week, but the European Central Bank faces a more difficult job: deciding whether or how it might signal a slowdown or pause in further interest rate rises in 2007. Economic indicators have surprised on the upside; the ECB frets in particular about fast-growing credit and money supply data. Forecasts for next year might have shown inflation with that range too, if it were not for a three-point rise in German value added tax next month. Meanwhile, the euro's rise could have a braking effect on the economy similar to that of higher borrowing costs. Other factors include the risk of a US slowdown having knock-on effects on the eurozone, and the complications created by Germany's VAT increase.

USD - Traders will looking to new economic data and the tone from the European Central Bank for fresh reasons to trade on the dollar. The ECB will this week be watched closely for clues about future eurozone interest rates. Financial markets will scrutinise carefully the words of Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, for signals on the pace of increases in 2007 and any signs of concern on the currency. Some analysts think Mr Trichet may seek to create more room for manoeuvre on the timing of future moves, increasing the risks for traders purchasing euros. The most important release of economic data will be the US employment report on Friday.

OIL - Inventories of crude oil are too high, indicating that OPEC, which supplies two out of every five barrels, should cut output. Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will next meet in Nigeria on Dec. 14 to decide whether to cut production for a second time in two months. But among the world's biggest consumers of oil there is unease at the prospect of production cuts from the cartel. The U.S. energy secretary, Samuel Bodman, said last week that OPEC should refrain from another cut, because a colder-than-average winter in the United States may increase demand.

Later

1900h - NZD : ANZ Commodity Prices

No comments: