Portfolio Performance : +1.91%
Actions : I have closed my GBP/USD trade after the USD weakened on a volatile equity market
Headline News
1. OPEC cuts world oil demand forecast, cites energy efficiency
2. China 1H actual Foreign Direct investment higher by 45.5% year on year
3. Malaysia May Industrial Output 2.5% versus 3.4% expected
4. Japan revised May industrial output higher by 2.8% versus 2.9% rise
5. Japan consumer confidence index at 32.6 in June from 33.9 in May
6. German June wholesale price index higher by 0.9% from May, higher by 8.9% year on year
7. Russian central bank raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 11.00%
8. OECD May Composite Leading indicator 97.2 vs 97.7 in April
9. OPEC cartel said that it might need to slow investment in its oilfield as consuming countries reduce their oil demand through conservation and increasingly turning to alternatives such as biofuels
10. US May trade deficit narrows to 59.8 Billion USD vs 62.1 Billion USD expected
11. US June non oil import prices higher by 78.6% over year, the largest increase in 5 years
12. Michigan consumer sentiment in July rose to 56.6 versus 56 expected
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : Equity market volatility have contributed to a weaker US dollar, the market seems to be a bit tired of short selling stocks for the moment. I expect the market to quieten down for a while before we start another round of financial maket turmoil.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Friday, July 11, 2008
Portfolio Performance : -2.39%
Headline News
1. India's Ministry of Agriculture siad that the country's total food grain production for fiscal 2007-2008 has reached 230.67 million tonnes. Wheat production is expected to rise 3.42% year on year and rice production by 3.3%
2. Japan's June corporate goods price index higher by 5.6% year on year
3. Japan's May current account surplus -5.9% year on year
4. Singapore GDP higher by 1.9% year on year, which was below forecast (this is going to be splashed on the front page on the media tomorrow)
5. Australia June unemployment rate 4.2% versus 4.3% consensus
6. China 1H soybean imports higher by 24.4% year on year
7. China 1H oil product imports higher by 16.4% year on year
8. France May industrial output lower by 2.6% vs April
9. Dutch May industrial sales higher by 6% year on year
10. June Halifax house prices lower by 6.1% year on year (I think traders are going to sell the GBP on this)
11. Realtytrac said that US foreclosures are lower by 3% from May in June, but higher by 53% year on year
12. Bank of England leaves rates on hold at 5%
13. US jobless claims lower by 58 000 to 346 000, but continuing claims rose 91 000 to 3.202M
14. A defence analyst said that Iran had doctored photographs of missile firing and exaggerated the capabilities of the weapons
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : I am still keeping the Long GBP/USD position. I expect the equity market to soften further and the US dollar to continue to weaken
Headline News
1. India's Ministry of Agriculture siad that the country's total food grain production for fiscal 2007-2008 has reached 230.67 million tonnes. Wheat production is expected to rise 3.42% year on year and rice production by 3.3%
2. Japan's June corporate goods price index higher by 5.6% year on year
3. Japan's May current account surplus -5.9% year on year
4. Singapore GDP higher by 1.9% year on year, which was below forecast (this is going to be splashed on the front page on the media tomorrow)
5. Australia June unemployment rate 4.2% versus 4.3% consensus
6. China 1H soybean imports higher by 24.4% year on year
7. China 1H oil product imports higher by 16.4% year on year
8. France May industrial output lower by 2.6% vs April
9. Dutch May industrial sales higher by 6% year on year
10. June Halifax house prices lower by 6.1% year on year (I think traders are going to sell the GBP on this)
11. Realtytrac said that US foreclosures are lower by 3% from May in June, but higher by 53% year on year
12. Bank of England leaves rates on hold at 5%
13. US jobless claims lower by 58 000 to 346 000, but continuing claims rose 91 000 to 3.202M
14. A defence analyst said that Iran had doctored photographs of missile firing and exaggerated the capabilities of the weapons
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : I am still keeping the Long GBP/USD position. I expect the equity market to soften further and the US dollar to continue to weaken
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Portfolio Performance : -1.95%
Headline News
1. Fed's Lacker sees positive growth in 08, warns of unacceptable high inflation
2. Russia threatens to react with military force against US missile shield
3. American consumer credit rise $7.78 billion, mostly the use of credit cards
4. US ABC consumer confidence -41 from -43 in the previous week
5. Japan's May core private sector machinery orders higher by 10.4% from April
6. Australia consumer confidence hits 16 year low in July
7. Malaysia says that CPI may exceed 6%
8. Iran Test fires nine missiles
9. German current account surplus 7.5 billion euros vs 15.5 billion in April
10. The European Union agreed in principle yesterday to publish weekly oil stock data, in what ministers described as an attempt to inject more transparency to a market where prices are regularly reaching new highs.
11. Trichet says that Euro zone growth moderate but ongoing
12. US crude oil stocks fell to 293.9M barrels
13. Gasoline stocks gained 0.9M to 211.8M
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : I am still holding on to the long GBP/USD trade. The US dollar is weakening, but I think the market is still looking for a direction
Headline News
1. Fed's Lacker sees positive growth in 08, warns of unacceptable high inflation
2. Russia threatens to react with military force against US missile shield
3. American consumer credit rise $7.78 billion, mostly the use of credit cards
4. US ABC consumer confidence -41 from -43 in the previous week
5. Japan's May core private sector machinery orders higher by 10.4% from April
6. Australia consumer confidence hits 16 year low in July
7. Malaysia says that CPI may exceed 6%
8. Iran Test fires nine missiles
9. German current account surplus 7.5 billion euros vs 15.5 billion in April
10. The European Union agreed in principle yesterday to publish weekly oil stock data, in what ministers described as an attempt to inject more transparency to a market where prices are regularly reaching new highs.
11. Trichet says that Euro zone growth moderate but ongoing
12. US crude oil stocks fell to 293.9M barrels
13. Gasoline stocks gained 0.9M to 211.8M
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : I am still holding on to the long GBP/USD trade. The US dollar is weakening, but I think the market is still looking for a direction
Portfolio Performance : -5.16%
Headline News
1. Bank Sector Tracker hit all time low as credit concerns continue
2. The British government said on Monday that it would slow the expansion of biofuels following a report, which they said could increase greehouse gases and food prices
3. Japan June Bank Lending higher by 2% year on year
4. Singapore Sembcorp Marine wins $565 million Rig Order
5. Monster Index for Europe came in flat - jobless stable in Europe
6. Number of Japanese coporate bankruptcies rose 7.1% in June from May
7. Philippines increases transport fares as fuel costs soar
8. UK value of home loans down 44% from a year ago
9. UK May House prices higher by 3.7% year on year from 4.9% growth in April
10. Leading German think tank said that the European construction sector is headed for a sharp slowdown
11. US May Wholesale inventories higher by 0.8% vs 0.7% expected
12. US May pending home sales index fall 4.7% to 84.7 vs 86.4 expected
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : The equity market is set to rally, which builds the case for a stronger USD. Commodities might be pressure in the short term but I will read too much into a selloff yet. I am still holding on to my long GBP /USD trade
Headline News
1. Bank Sector Tracker hit all time low as credit concerns continue
2. The British government said on Monday that it would slow the expansion of biofuels following a report, which they said could increase greehouse gases and food prices
3. Japan June Bank Lending higher by 2% year on year
4. Singapore Sembcorp Marine wins $565 million Rig Order
5. Monster Index for Europe came in flat - jobless stable in Europe
6. Number of Japanese coporate bankruptcies rose 7.1% in June from May
7. Philippines increases transport fares as fuel costs soar
8. UK value of home loans down 44% from a year ago
9. UK May House prices higher by 3.7% year on year from 4.9% growth in April
10. Leading German think tank said that the European construction sector is headed for a sharp slowdown
11. US May Wholesale inventories higher by 0.8% vs 0.7% expected
12. US May pending home sales index fall 4.7% to 84.7 vs 86.4 expected
Expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Negative
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Negative
Bottomline : The equity market is set to rally, which builds the case for a stronger USD. Commodities might be pressure in the short term but I will read too much into a selloff yet. I am still holding on to my long GBP /USD trade
Friday, July 04, 2008
Portfolio Performance : -0.6%
Headline News
1. Fed's Miskin said that high commodity prices could take a toll on the economy
2. Spanish PM sees "serious difficulties for economy, no recession"
3. Bosnian national airline seeks strategic investors
4. The UK Times reported that "shock" figures from Marks and Spencer that sales have fallen by 5% in the past three months has fueled fears that the consumer slump will develop into a "severe consumer slump"
5. Swiss consumer price index +2.9% versus June forecast of 3.1%
6. Paulson says that biggest focus is economic downturn
7. Spain June services index is lowest recorded for any Euro Zone PM (this is serious)
8. Spain Service PMI in June is lowest in 9 year history
9. Dutch Q1 revised GDP higher by 3.3%
10. French June PMI at 50.1 lowest since 2003
11. Euro Zone Service PMI for June revised lower to 49.1 from 49.5
12. Hong Kong Retail Sales higher by 12.9% YoY
13.UK CIPS June Services PMI 47.1, lowest since Oct 2001
14. BOE survey shows that credit terms worsened for both households and corporates in Q2
15. Euro Zone Retail sales higher by 1.2% ver April in May, higher by 2% YoY
16. US nonfarm payroll -62000 vs -60000 expected in June
Bottomline : I am still long on the GBP, the ECB hike interest rates to 4.25%, but Trichet was more dovish than expected.
Headline News
1. Fed's Miskin said that high commodity prices could take a toll on the economy
2. Spanish PM sees "serious difficulties for economy, no recession"
3. Bosnian national airline seeks strategic investors
4. The UK Times reported that "shock" figures from Marks and Spencer that sales have fallen by 5% in the past three months has fueled fears that the consumer slump will develop into a "severe consumer slump"
5. Swiss consumer price index +2.9% versus June forecast of 3.1%
6. Paulson says that biggest focus is economic downturn
7. Spain June services index is lowest recorded for any Euro Zone PM (this is serious)
8. Spain Service PMI in June is lowest in 9 year history
9. Dutch Q1 revised GDP higher by 3.3%
10. French June PMI at 50.1 lowest since 2003
11. Euro Zone Service PMI for June revised lower to 49.1 from 49.5
12. Hong Kong Retail Sales higher by 12.9% YoY
13.UK CIPS June Services PMI 47.1, lowest since Oct 2001
14. BOE survey shows that credit terms worsened for both households and corporates in Q2
15. Euro Zone Retail sales higher by 1.2% ver April in May, higher by 2% YoY
16. US nonfarm payroll -62000 vs -60000 expected in June
Bottomline : I am still long on the GBP, the ECB hike interest rates to 4.25%, but Trichet was more dovish than expected.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +14.17%
Actions : I bought GBP at 1.9922
Headline News
1. Denmark in recession after first quarter contraction
2. China questions Australia on Investment Curbs
3. The Reserve bank of Australia index of commodity prices jumped 7.9 percent in June on a huge increase in coal and ore prices
4. Japan monetary base higher by 0.4% from a year earlier
5. China May consumer confidence rises to 94.3 vs 94 in April
6. Indonesia fuel subsidy expected to exceed $21.7 billion if oil averages $140 this year
7. Philippine Central Bank sees inflation peaking in Q3, softening in 09
8. Spain jobless rises by 37 000 vs 15 000 in May
9. Germany new machinery plant orders down 12 percent year on year
10. UK June construction PMI 38.8 vs 43.9 in May
11. Euro Zone May PPI higher by 1.2 percent, higher by 7.1% year on year
12. OECD says that unemployment starting to rise as growth slows
13. US Challenger June Layoff intentions 81 755 vs May 103 522
14. Singapore PMI reverted to growth with orders from the domestic market rising
15. US May Factory Orders higher by 0.6% - highest level on record
My expectations for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : Market volatility has picked up, I expect the USD to depreciate and bought the GBP
Actions : I bought GBP at 1.9922
Headline News
1. Denmark in recession after first quarter contraction
2. China questions Australia on Investment Curbs
3. The Reserve bank of Australia index of commodity prices jumped 7.9 percent in June on a huge increase in coal and ore prices
4. Japan monetary base higher by 0.4% from a year earlier
5. China May consumer confidence rises to 94.3 vs 94 in April
6. Indonesia fuel subsidy expected to exceed $21.7 billion if oil averages $140 this year
7. Philippine Central Bank sees inflation peaking in Q3, softening in 09
8. Spain jobless rises by 37 000 vs 15 000 in May
9. Germany new machinery plant orders down 12 percent year on year
10. UK June construction PMI 38.8 vs 43.9 in May
11. Euro Zone May PPI higher by 1.2 percent, higher by 7.1% year on year
12. OECD says that unemployment starting to rise as growth slows
13. US Challenger June Layoff intentions 81 755 vs May 103 522
14. Singapore PMI reverted to growth with orders from the domestic market rising
15. US May Factory Orders higher by 0.6% - highest level on record
My expectations for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : Market volatility has picked up, I expect the USD to depreciate and bought the GBP
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
Portfolio Performance : + 13.98
Actions : The CAD trade helped the performance of the portfolio, the trade closed at the profit target of 31 PIPs
Headline News
1. Paulson is on a five day trip through Europe, working with European leaders and Russian leaders on how policy makers need to re think on how to deal with failed firms. (I have to admire this guy, he really has fire in his belly and is very persistant at getting deals done. Great spirit from an ex IB)
2. Morgan Stanley Places Lehman Brothers at Overweight
3. Bank of Korea says that GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2008
4. Bank of Korea says that CPI will rise by 4.8% in 2008
5. Manufacturing activity in Australia continued to slow in June as production and new orders felt the impact of higher interest rates and easing global conditions
6. Japan Tankan declined but better than expected
7. China Manufacturing PMI 52 vs 53.3
8. New Home Sales fall 5% in May
9. Singapore Q2 private residential prices higher by 0.4 percent from Q1
10. RBA leaves interest rate unchanged at 7.25%
11. Japan June new vehicle sales lower by 3.6% from a year earlier
12. Ducth PMI 51.1 vs 51.5 in May
13. German May retail sales higher by 1.3% from April
14. UK House prices lower by 0.9% in June from May
15. Indonesia June CPI higher by 2.46% from May, higher by 11.03% year on year
16. Indonesia May exports higher by 17.5% from April
17. German adjusted jobless lower by 38 000 from May
18. Euro Zone May unemployment 7.2% unchanged from April
19. US June ISM Manufacturing index rise to 50.2 vs 48.7 expected
My Expectations for the USD Crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think the market is getting a bit tired of selling the USD, I expect the market to pause and volatility to decrease
Actions : The CAD trade helped the performance of the portfolio, the trade closed at the profit target of 31 PIPs
Headline News
1. Paulson is on a five day trip through Europe, working with European leaders and Russian leaders on how policy makers need to re think on how to deal with failed firms. (I have to admire this guy, he really has fire in his belly and is very persistant at getting deals done. Great spirit from an ex IB)
2. Morgan Stanley Places Lehman Brothers at Overweight
3. Bank of Korea says that GDP will grow by 4.6% in 2008
4. Bank of Korea says that CPI will rise by 4.8% in 2008
5. Manufacturing activity in Australia continued to slow in June as production and new orders felt the impact of higher interest rates and easing global conditions
6. Japan Tankan declined but better than expected
7. China Manufacturing PMI 52 vs 53.3
8. New Home Sales fall 5% in May
9. Singapore Q2 private residential prices higher by 0.4 percent from Q1
10. RBA leaves interest rate unchanged at 7.25%
11. Japan June new vehicle sales lower by 3.6% from a year earlier
12. Ducth PMI 51.1 vs 51.5 in May
13. German May retail sales higher by 1.3% from April
14. UK House prices lower by 0.9% in June from May
15. Indonesia June CPI higher by 2.46% from May, higher by 11.03% year on year
16. Indonesia May exports higher by 17.5% from April
17. German adjusted jobless lower by 38 000 from May
18. Euro Zone May unemployment 7.2% unchanged from April
19. US June ISM Manufacturing index rise to 50.2 vs 48.7 expected
My Expectations for the USD Crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Neutral
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think the market is getting a bit tired of selling the USD, I expect the market to pause and volatility to decrease
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +5.75%
Actions : Long USD/CAD at 1.01845
Headline News
1. Germany sees 2009 federal budget deficit 10.5 billion euros vs 11.9 billion in 2008
2. Israel approves prisoner swap with Hezbollah, reopens crossing for goods to Gaza
3. WSJ highlighes Taiwan as investment opportunity
4. Japanese PM Fukuda approval rating higher by 2 points to 26 percent
5. Domestic exporters buying AUD/USD
6. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono popularity ratings have fallen because of the recent fuel price increase
7. Singapore May commercial bank loans S$256.91 billion vs S$203.80 billion
8. Singapore M3 S$323.81 billion versus S$296.95 billion a year ago
9. Malaysia may tweak its budget deficit for 2008
10. South Korea industrial production down 0.6 percent from April
11. Japan May housing starts lower by 6.5% from a year earlier
12. Japan May orders received by 50 largest contractors down 25.2% year on year
13. German May wholesale down by 0.8% year on year
14. FT says that cracks are appearing in Chinese discretionary spending
15. UK May mortgage approvals hit new record low of 42 000 vs April 58 000, lowest since March 2001
16. Euro Zone Provisional HICP higher by 4.0% versus 3.7% in May
17. Philippines sees inflation above 11% in June
18. Malaysia Broad Money supply higher by 12.4% year on year
19. Thai Inflation could top 10% in July
20. Chicago Purchasing index 49.6 versus 49.1 in May
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Negative
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think that the overall environment is still nervous and a lot of people are not optimistic over the USD, I am long CAD at this point
Actions : Long USD/CAD at 1.01845
Headline News
1. Germany sees 2009 federal budget deficit 10.5 billion euros vs 11.9 billion in 2008
2. Israel approves prisoner swap with Hezbollah, reopens crossing for goods to Gaza
3. WSJ highlighes Taiwan as investment opportunity
4. Japanese PM Fukuda approval rating higher by 2 points to 26 percent
5. Domestic exporters buying AUD/USD
6. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono popularity ratings have fallen because of the recent fuel price increase
7. Singapore May commercial bank loans S$256.91 billion vs S$203.80 billion
8. Singapore M3 S$323.81 billion versus S$296.95 billion a year ago
9. Malaysia may tweak its budget deficit for 2008
10. South Korea industrial production down 0.6 percent from April
11. Japan May housing starts lower by 6.5% from a year earlier
12. Japan May orders received by 50 largest contractors down 25.2% year on year
13. German May wholesale down by 0.8% year on year
14. FT says that cracks are appearing in Chinese discretionary spending
15. UK May mortgage approvals hit new record low of 42 000 vs April 58 000, lowest since March 2001
16. Euro Zone Provisional HICP higher by 4.0% versus 3.7% in May
17. Philippines sees inflation above 11% in June
18. Malaysia Broad Money supply higher by 12.4% year on year
19. Thai Inflation could top 10% in July
20. Chicago Purchasing index 49.6 versus 49.1 in May
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Negative
2. GBP : Positive
3. CAD : Negative
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think that the overall environment is still nervous and a lot of people are not optimistic over the USD, I am long CAD at this point
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +5.73%
Actions performed : I did some intraday trades, trading the GBP/USD pair
Headline News
1. The FOMC statement was very discouraging for the USD bulls
2. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown says that law reform needed to get nuclear stations to be built quickly to reduce the country's dependance on oil and to combat climate change
3. Foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese stocks for the sixth straight week
4. The Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs plans to propose a rise in the cap of Taiwanese corporates in China by the end of July
5. Singapore May factory output down by 12.8% versus average forecast growth of 1.6%
6. German import prices higher by 2.4% year on year in April
7. French June consumer confidence -45 versus -41 in May
8. Foreign investors net sellers of 4.02 billion Taiwan shares
9. Germany might introduce a EUR 5 billion tax break for commuters to shield consumers from rising petrol prices.
10. OPEC believes that it will need to produce far less oil over the next 12 years than the US has suggested, saying that new supply from regions and biofuels would reduce the need for its oil
11. Dutch consumer confidence falls to -19 from -17 in May
12. Euro Zone May M3 higher by 10.5%, unchanged from April
13. Euro May Loans higher by 10.4% versus 10.6 percent in April
14. Hong Kong Exports higher by 10.3% year on year versus 14.5% in April
15. Taiwan Central Bank will do it can to fight inflation
16. OPEC President sees $150 - $170 per barrel oil in summer
17. US jobless claims unchanged from previous week
18. US Q1 GDP Final came in at 1% as expected
19. US Conference Board Help Wanted Ad index 17 versus 18 in April
20. US May existing homes sales higher by 2% Month on Month
My expectation for the USD cross
1. CAD : Negative
2. JPY : Positive
3. CHF : Positive
4. EUR : Negative
5. AUD : Neutral
6. GBP : Neutral
Bottomline : I expect market volatility to continue, and that the USD might succumb to further weakness
Actions performed : I did some intraday trades, trading the GBP/USD pair
Headline News
1. The FOMC statement was very discouraging for the USD bulls
2. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown says that law reform needed to get nuclear stations to be built quickly to reduce the country's dependance on oil and to combat climate change
3. Foreign investors were net buyers of Japanese stocks for the sixth straight week
4. The Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs plans to propose a rise in the cap of Taiwanese corporates in China by the end of July
5. Singapore May factory output down by 12.8% versus average forecast growth of 1.6%
6. German import prices higher by 2.4% year on year in April
7. French June consumer confidence -45 versus -41 in May
8. Foreign investors net sellers of 4.02 billion Taiwan shares
9. Germany might introduce a EUR 5 billion tax break for commuters to shield consumers from rising petrol prices.
10. OPEC believes that it will need to produce far less oil over the next 12 years than the US has suggested, saying that new supply from regions and biofuels would reduce the need for its oil
11. Dutch consumer confidence falls to -19 from -17 in May
12. Euro Zone May M3 higher by 10.5%, unchanged from April
13. Euro May Loans higher by 10.4% versus 10.6 percent in April
14. Hong Kong Exports higher by 10.3% year on year versus 14.5% in April
15. Taiwan Central Bank will do it can to fight inflation
16. OPEC President sees $150 - $170 per barrel oil in summer
17. US jobless claims unchanged from previous week
18. US Q1 GDP Final came in at 1% as expected
19. US Conference Board Help Wanted Ad index 17 versus 18 in April
20. US May existing homes sales higher by 2% Month on Month
My expectation for the USD cross
1. CAD : Negative
2. JPY : Positive
3. CHF : Positive
4. EUR : Negative
5. AUD : Neutral
6. GBP : Neutral
Bottomline : I expect market volatility to continue, and that the USD might succumb to further weakness
Portfolio Performance : +5.15%
Headline News
1. US Paulson does not see evidence speculators driving oil price
2. Paulson says that oil price rise is mostly a result of supply and demand
3. Paulson says that there is room for improvement in the regulation of the energy futures market
4. Japan May Corporate Price Service Index higher by 0.6% YoY
5. Japan May Trade Surplus 365.61 billion Yen vs 395.55 Billion Yen from a year earlier
6. Financial Times says that Australian resources in demand as never before
7. Taiwan would talk with China on direct shipping and oil exploration in the second half of this year
8. China Q2 banking prosperity index falls to 68.3 percent versus 69.7 percent in Q1
9. South Korean authorities sold as much as $1 USD to boost the KRW, the intervention helped supported the WON, but the currency remains among the five Asian currencies that have fallen by 7 percent or more against the USD
10. Trichet sees inflation remaining high for longer than previously thought
11. Trichet says that ECB is in state of heightened alertness
12. Euro Zone industrial orders were higher by 11.7 percent year on year
13. UK July retail sales expectations fall to -7 percent versus +6 in June
14. Trichet says that commodity prices are driven more by demand than supply
15. The Thai government says that the economy is set to grow 5.6% this year
16. US Durable Goods unchanged in May (no surprises here)
17. Saudi arrests 700 Islamists preparing "oil attacks"
18. US May New Home Sales lower by 2.5 percent to 512 000 versus 515 000 expected
19. Spainish housing slowdown to end in second half of 2009
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Negative
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think the market is against the USD, but I am not going to place my bets just yet, I will wait for Bernanke to signal his decision later first
Headline News
1. US Paulson does not see evidence speculators driving oil price
2. Paulson says that oil price rise is mostly a result of supply and demand
3. Paulson says that there is room for improvement in the regulation of the energy futures market
4. Japan May Corporate Price Service Index higher by 0.6% YoY
5. Japan May Trade Surplus 365.61 billion Yen vs 395.55 Billion Yen from a year earlier
6. Financial Times says that Australian resources in demand as never before
7. Taiwan would talk with China on direct shipping and oil exploration in the second half of this year
8. China Q2 banking prosperity index falls to 68.3 percent versus 69.7 percent in Q1
9. South Korean authorities sold as much as $1 USD to boost the KRW, the intervention helped supported the WON, but the currency remains among the five Asian currencies that have fallen by 7 percent or more against the USD
10. Trichet sees inflation remaining high for longer than previously thought
11. Trichet says that ECB is in state of heightened alertness
12. Euro Zone industrial orders were higher by 11.7 percent year on year
13. UK July retail sales expectations fall to -7 percent versus +6 in June
14. Trichet says that commodity prices are driven more by demand than supply
15. The Thai government says that the economy is set to grow 5.6% this year
16. US Durable Goods unchanged in May (no surprises here)
17. Saudi arrests 700 Islamists preparing "oil attacks"
18. US May New Home Sales lower by 2.5 percent to 512 000 versus 515 000 expected
19. Spainish housing slowdown to end in second half of 2009
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Negative
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I think the market is against the USD, but I am not going to place my bets just yet, I will wait for Bernanke to signal his decision later first
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Portfolio Performance : 5.15%
Headline News
1. Treasury official says housing correction is currently "in progress"
2. Treasury official says that financial conditions would improve, but not in straight line
3. Think Tank says Ireland heading for recession for the 1st time in 25 years
4. A PBOC survey says that chinese firms expect the CNY to appreciate by 3% in 6 months
5. Germany's GFK sees consumer climate index at 3.9 points vs 4.7 in June
6. French household consumption higher by 2% from April
7. French June business climate indicator 102 vs 102 in May
8. Global inflation fears steepened as Chinese steelmakers agreed to record increase in annual ore prices, which would boost the cost of cars and other machinery products
9. BHP Billiton increases Western Australia iron ore reserve by 23 percent
10. Taiwan May export orders higher by 14.46 percent on year from 15.69% in April
11. UK Mortgage approvals slump to 27 968, the lowest in a decade, says BBA
12. Spain Jan-May budget surplus 2.722 billion Euros versus 14.36 billion Euros surplus 2007
13. Russia GDP higher by 7.7% year on year
14. Thailand and US to resume free trade talks
15. US April S&P Case Shiller Home price index falls 15.3% year on year
16. US Fed Manufacturing index -12 versus -3 in May
My epextation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Negative
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I expect volatility to continue, I expect the market to probably set the tone after the Fed meeting which ends tommorrow
Headline News
1. Treasury official says housing correction is currently "in progress"
2. Treasury official says that financial conditions would improve, but not in straight line
3. Think Tank says Ireland heading for recession for the 1st time in 25 years
4. A PBOC survey says that chinese firms expect the CNY to appreciate by 3% in 6 months
5. Germany's GFK sees consumer climate index at 3.9 points vs 4.7 in June
6. French household consumption higher by 2% from April
7. French June business climate indicator 102 vs 102 in May
8. Global inflation fears steepened as Chinese steelmakers agreed to record increase in annual ore prices, which would boost the cost of cars and other machinery products
9. BHP Billiton increases Western Australia iron ore reserve by 23 percent
10. Taiwan May export orders higher by 14.46 percent on year from 15.69% in April
11. UK Mortgage approvals slump to 27 968, the lowest in a decade, says BBA
12. Spain Jan-May budget surplus 2.722 billion Euros versus 14.36 billion Euros surplus 2007
13. Russia GDP higher by 7.7% year on year
14. Thailand and US to resume free trade talks
15. US April S&P Case Shiller Home price index falls 15.3% year on year
16. US Fed Manufacturing index -12 versus -3 in May
My epextation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Positive
2. GBP : Negative
3. CAD : Neutral
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : I expect volatility to continue, I expect the market to probably set the tone after the Fed meeting which ends tommorrow
Portfolio Performance : 5.14%
Headline News
1. Saudi Arabia's Al Naimi says world oil supplies are enough for decades
2. PBOC Governor Zhou has signalled tougher action in the fight against inflation
3. UK property website Rightmove said that the asking price of a UK home was nearly 3000 pounds lower in June compared to May
4. Japan Large Firms Q2 business conditions index -15.2 versus -9.3 in Q1
5. Japan companies FY CAPEX seen down 0.9% versus down 9.4% in March
6. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that motor sales were 2.6% higher from a year ago but fell 1.6% from May
7. Singapore CPI higher by 7.5% year on year, consensus looking at 7.9% year on year
8. French June provisional Services PMI 49.2 versus 50.5 in May
9. German June provisional Services PMI 52.3, consensus looking for 53.2
10. Taiwan May unemployment 3.84% versus 3.81% in April
11. German IFO June Business climate index 101.3 versus 103.5 in May
12. Euro Zone June Composite PMI 49.5 versus 51.1 in May
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : The market is preparing for the US rate decision, where most participants expect a hold at 200 basis points. I think we might see some volatility in the crosses after the announcement on Wednesday
Headline News
1. Saudi Arabia's Al Naimi says world oil supplies are enough for decades
2. PBOC Governor Zhou has signalled tougher action in the fight against inflation
3. UK property website Rightmove said that the asking price of a UK home was nearly 3000 pounds lower in June compared to May
4. Japan Large Firms Q2 business conditions index -15.2 versus -9.3 in Q1
5. Japan companies FY CAPEX seen down 0.9% versus down 9.4% in March
6. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said that motor sales were 2.6% higher from a year ago but fell 1.6% from May
7. Singapore CPI higher by 7.5% year on year, consensus looking at 7.9% year on year
8. French June provisional Services PMI 49.2 versus 50.5 in May
9. German June provisional Services PMI 52.3, consensus looking for 53.2
10. Taiwan May unemployment 3.84% versus 3.81% in April
11. German IFO June Business climate index 101.3 versus 103.5 in May
12. Euro Zone June Composite PMI 49.5 versus 51.1 in May
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline : The market is preparing for the US rate decision, where most participants expect a hold at 200 basis points. I think we might see some volatility in the crosses after the announcement on Wednesday
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +5.13%
Headline News
1. US Paulson says that energy prices prolonging hard times
2. Newspaper stocks fall after Goldman downgrade
3. Moody's said that the 3 leading Singapore banks should still see growth this year, but might struggle to show growth next year as bad loans start to rise.
4. Malaysia's manufacturing sales in April rose 18.5% from a year earlier led by refined petroleum products, electronics, iron and steel products and chemicals
5. Vietnam said that it would export more rice after it has ensured that domestic market is well supplied first
6. Swiss producer and import prices in March were higher by 3.9% year on year
7. Dutch April consumer spending rises 2.1% year on year
8. Italy April industrial sales higher by 13.9% year on year, orders higher by 12.8%
9.Hong Kong CPI higher by 5.7% in May vs 5.4% in April
10. India inflation rate accelerated to a 13 year high on a recent fuel hike in retail fuel prices and because of an increase in prices of non food items. The WPI rose 11.05% for the week ended June 7
11. Thousands of Thai protestors breached a police barricade and surrounded the government office on Friday
12. Rumors filled the market of European banks in trouble, a US broker to report earnings downgrade, which caused a negative USD and spreads to widen
13. IMF says that US recovery will be more gradual than previous recessions
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : The US dollar might be under some pressure on financial market turmoil
Headline News
1. US Paulson says that energy prices prolonging hard times
2. Newspaper stocks fall after Goldman downgrade
3. Moody's said that the 3 leading Singapore banks should still see growth this year, but might struggle to show growth next year as bad loans start to rise.
4. Malaysia's manufacturing sales in April rose 18.5% from a year earlier led by refined petroleum products, electronics, iron and steel products and chemicals
5. Vietnam said that it would export more rice after it has ensured that domestic market is well supplied first
6. Swiss producer and import prices in March were higher by 3.9% year on year
7. Dutch April consumer spending rises 2.1% year on year
8. Italy April industrial sales higher by 13.9% year on year, orders higher by 12.8%
9.Hong Kong CPI higher by 5.7% in May vs 5.4% in April
10. India inflation rate accelerated to a 13 year high on a recent fuel hike in retail fuel prices and because of an increase in prices of non food items. The WPI rose 11.05% for the week ended June 7
11. Thousands of Thai protestors breached a police barricade and surrounded the government office on Friday
12. Rumors filled the market of European banks in trouble, a US broker to report earnings downgrade, which caused a negative USD and spreads to widen
13. IMF says that US recovery will be more gradual than previous recessions
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : The US dollar might be under some pressure on financial market turmoil
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +5.12%
Actions Performed : I closed my USD/CHF trade, which helped the performance of the portfolio
Headline News
1. London's Business leaders have become pessimistic about the capital's competitiveness and their firm's future prospects fue to poorly handled reforms by the Treasury and the economic downturn
2. China agrees to ease rules for insurance companies and foreign investors in China's securities market as part of this week's meeting of the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue
3. Japan's All industry index higher by 0.8 percent from March
4. Gains in the service sector offset weak industrial output
5. Markets anticipating an interest rate raise at upcoming Taiwan Central Bank meeting
6. The People's Bank of China sold three year bank bills in open market
7. World Bank says that China's money supply is under control and inflation is stable
8. Singapore releases 13 new land sites for sale in the second half of this year
9. Swiss May Trade Balance widens to 1.87 Billion Francs
10. Thailand's PM under attack from all sides
11. CHF weakens as SNB sounds relaxed
12. Dutch unemployment at 4.1 percent vs 4.7% from a year ago
13. British May retail Sales came in at 8.1% year on year, higher than expected
14. Maalysia said that it would go ahead with two major infrastructure projects despite its plan to review some projects under the state development blueprint
15. Shell shuts down 200 000 barrels of production at Nigerian oil field
16. US jobless claims falls 5000 to 381 000, continuing claims fall 76 000
17. China will raise petrol and diesel prices from Friday, the average electricity price will rise 2.5% from July 1
18. US Philly Fed Employment Index -6.9 versus -1 in May
19. S&P said that Vietname may experience sharp correction in economic growth
My expectations for the FX USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : I think we will continue to see volatility in the market
Actions Performed : I closed my USD/CHF trade, which helped the performance of the portfolio
Headline News
1. London's Business leaders have become pessimistic about the capital's competitiveness and their firm's future prospects fue to poorly handled reforms by the Treasury and the economic downturn
2. China agrees to ease rules for insurance companies and foreign investors in China's securities market as part of this week's meeting of the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue
3. Japan's All industry index higher by 0.8 percent from March
4. Gains in the service sector offset weak industrial output
5. Markets anticipating an interest rate raise at upcoming Taiwan Central Bank meeting
6. The People's Bank of China sold three year bank bills in open market
7. World Bank says that China's money supply is under control and inflation is stable
8. Singapore releases 13 new land sites for sale in the second half of this year
9. Swiss May Trade Balance widens to 1.87 Billion Francs
10. Thailand's PM under attack from all sides
11. CHF weakens as SNB sounds relaxed
12. Dutch unemployment at 4.1 percent vs 4.7% from a year ago
13. British May retail Sales came in at 8.1% year on year, higher than expected
14. Maalysia said that it would go ahead with two major infrastructure projects despite its plan to review some projects under the state development blueprint
15. Shell shuts down 200 000 barrels of production at Nigerian oil field
16. US jobless claims falls 5000 to 381 000, continuing claims fall 76 000
17. China will raise petrol and diesel prices from Friday, the average electricity price will rise 2.5% from July 1
18. US Philly Fed Employment Index -6.9 versus -1 in May
19. S&P said that Vietname may experience sharp correction in economic growth
My expectations for the FX USD crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Positive
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Neutral
Bottomline : I think we will continue to see volatility in the market
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +4.09%
Headline News
1. Goldman Sachs analyst said that credit card losses would continue to deteriorate till 2009, banks with exposure to the securities are Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan and Chase
2. Chinese officials said that price controls in market will continue
3. The Philippines recorded a net outflow of $158.1 million in foreign portfolio investments in May as investors fret over consumer prices and external factor effects on the economy
4. Japan's April Coincident index 101.7 unchanged from initial estimate
5. Japan May Department Sales down 2.7% year on year
6. Czech Retail Sales higher by 4.6% versus 5.6% expectations
7. Bank of England kept rates unchanged
8. Opposition lodge a vote of no confidence against Thai prime minister
9. According to Merrill Lynch, most fund managers are most underweight equities in a decade
10. The National Assciation of Realtors said that the credit crunch is beginning to cause significant damage to the commercial real estate business
My expectations for the FX crosses against USD
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline: I am still into my USD / CHF long trade, I continue to expect volatility in the market
Headline News
1. Goldman Sachs analyst said that credit card losses would continue to deteriorate till 2009, banks with exposure to the securities are Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan and Chase
2. Chinese officials said that price controls in market will continue
3. The Philippines recorded a net outflow of $158.1 million in foreign portfolio investments in May as investors fret over consumer prices and external factor effects on the economy
4. Japan's April Coincident index 101.7 unchanged from initial estimate
5. Japan May Department Sales down 2.7% year on year
6. Czech Retail Sales higher by 4.6% versus 5.6% expectations
7. Bank of England kept rates unchanged
8. Opposition lodge a vote of no confidence against Thai prime minister
9. According to Merrill Lynch, most fund managers are most underweight equities in a decade
10. The National Assciation of Realtors said that the credit crunch is beginning to cause significant damage to the commercial real estate business
My expectations for the FX crosses against USD
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Positive
Bottomline: I am still into my USD / CHF long trade, I continue to expect volatility in the market
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +4.02%
Headline News
1. US NAHB Housing Index falls to 18 vs expectations of 20 (shows that US housing is still in a mess)
2. Japan's Tetiary Index higher by 1.8 percent in April from March
3. Indonesian actual investments in the first five months surged to 80.9 percent to 93.9 trillion rupiah from 51.9 trillion a year ago
4. Australian Central Bank saw current monetary policy as adequate
5. Philippines unemployment rate edged to 8% from 7.4% in April from a year ago
6. Singapore Non Oil Domestic Exports Fall 10.5% year on year as pharmaceutical shipments fall. Pharmaceuticals actually fell 48.5% year on year! (This is sure to hit the press tomorrow)
7. Hong Kong March-May unemployment rate at 3.3 percent unchanged from Feb- April
8. UK annual May CPI rises to 3.3% from 3% in April
9. Euro Zone April Trade Surplus 2.3 billion Euros vs 1.5B deficit in March
10. Germany June Economic expectations -52.4 versus -41.4 in April
11. US wholesale inflation up 1.4% in May while core inflation was higher by 0.2%
12. US builders slowed construction on new homes in May in an effort to reduce inventory. Housing starts fell 3.3% to 975 000 unit rate, the lowest since 1991
My Expectations for the USD Crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Neutral
End of the Day: I am still keeping my Long USD/CHF trade, I think we might face some volatility, so we will see how things move along
Headline News
1. US NAHB Housing Index falls to 18 vs expectations of 20 (shows that US housing is still in a mess)
2. Japan's Tetiary Index higher by 1.8 percent in April from March
3. Indonesian actual investments in the first five months surged to 80.9 percent to 93.9 trillion rupiah from 51.9 trillion a year ago
4. Australian Central Bank saw current monetary policy as adequate
5. Philippines unemployment rate edged to 8% from 7.4% in April from a year ago
6. Singapore Non Oil Domestic Exports Fall 10.5% year on year as pharmaceutical shipments fall. Pharmaceuticals actually fell 48.5% year on year! (This is sure to hit the press tomorrow)
7. Hong Kong March-May unemployment rate at 3.3 percent unchanged from Feb- April
8. UK annual May CPI rises to 3.3% from 3% in April
9. Euro Zone April Trade Surplus 2.3 billion Euros vs 1.5B deficit in March
10. Germany June Economic expectations -52.4 versus -41.4 in April
11. US wholesale inflation up 1.4% in May while core inflation was higher by 0.2%
12. US builders slowed construction on new homes in May in an effort to reduce inventory. Housing starts fell 3.3% to 975 000 unit rate, the lowest since 1991
My Expectations for the USD Crosses
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Positive
4. JPY : Neutral
5. CHF : Negative
6. EUR : Neutral
End of the Day: I am still keeping my Long USD/CHF trade, I think we might face some volatility, so we will see how things move along
Portfolio Performance : +3.99%
Actions : Went long USD/CHF as I expect US dollar to retain its strength
Headline News
1. China will ease price controls on oil and gas products "at an appropriate time" China is capping domestic oil, gas and power prices denying energy companies the option to pass the cost to consumers, which has caused price levels to inflate
2. China May Industrial Output higher by 16% from a year earlier
3. Singapore Q1 unemployment rate was 2% vs 1.7% in Q4
4. China Jan - May fixed asset investment rose 25.6% from a year earlier
5. Tokyo condominium sales down 17.7% year on year
6. Philippines recorded $42 million surplus BOP on remittance from overseas Filipinos
7. NZD under pressure as talk of a possible recession coming for the economy
8. Russia Q1 GDP was 8.5% higher YoY
9. Euro May HICP wsa 3.7%, above expectations
10. US Empire State Manufacturing Index for June was -8.93 vs -3.23 in May
Expectation for the FX Crosses Against the USD
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Neutral
4. YEN : Negative, Yen depreciation on US dollar bullish sentiment
5. CHF : Negative, Long USD/CHF at 1.04289
6. EUR : Negative
Actions : Went long USD/CHF as I expect US dollar to retain its strength
Headline News
1. China will ease price controls on oil and gas products "at an appropriate time" China is capping domestic oil, gas and power prices denying energy companies the option to pass the cost to consumers, which has caused price levels to inflate
2. China May Industrial Output higher by 16% from a year earlier
3. Singapore Q1 unemployment rate was 2% vs 1.7% in Q4
4. China Jan - May fixed asset investment rose 25.6% from a year earlier
5. Tokyo condominium sales down 17.7% year on year
6. Philippines recorded $42 million surplus BOP on remittance from overseas Filipinos
7. NZD under pressure as talk of a possible recession coming for the economy
8. Russia Q1 GDP was 8.5% higher YoY
9. Euro May HICP wsa 3.7%, above expectations
10. US Empire State Manufacturing Index for June was -8.93 vs -3.23 in May
Expectation for the FX Crosses Against the USD
1. AUD : Neutral
2. GBP : Neutral
3. CAD : Neutral
4. YEN : Negative, Yen depreciation on US dollar bullish sentiment
5. CHF : Negative, Long USD/CHF at 1.04289
6. EUR : Negative
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +3.99%
Actions: I exited my long on the GBP against the USD in a day, which helped the performance of the portfolio
Headline News
1. Japan Revised Q1 GDP up 1% versus 0.8% initial estimate
2. Japan Q1 non residential investment + 0.2% vs -0.9%
3. Australian consumer sentiment index falls to 15 year low
4. China May PPI higher by 9.2% YoY
5. Australia says that free trade agreement with China will resume soon
6. Two truck drivers were killed in Spain and portugal as they protest against high fuel costs (Now, this is serious. I mean, we are seeing people dying because of high commodity prices... It really brings to question the ethics of investing into commodities. No doubt it is an effective hedge against inflation, but think about the serious consequence for those who do not have the access to the financial instrument. Those of you who are long on crude, You have blood on your hands)
7. China May January - May Crude Imports higher by 12.7% YoY, Soybean Imports higher by 20.4% YoY
8. France CPI higher by 3.4% YoY
9. UK jobless higher by 9000 in May
10. Speculation of M&A for Aussie companies keeping AUD afloat
Expectations for the FX crosses
1. AUD : I am Neutral
2. GBP : Turning Negative, the Claimant number is getting higher
3. CAD : I am Negative
4. YEN : I am Negative
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Neutral
End of the Day : Fed Hawkish talk still lingers in the market, which might lend support for the USD
Actions: I exited my long on the GBP against the USD in a day, which helped the performance of the portfolio
Headline News
1. Japan Revised Q1 GDP up 1% versus 0.8% initial estimate
2. Japan Q1 non residential investment + 0.2% vs -0.9%
3. Australian consumer sentiment index falls to 15 year low
4. China May PPI higher by 9.2% YoY
5. Australia says that free trade agreement with China will resume soon
6. Two truck drivers were killed in Spain and portugal as they protest against high fuel costs (Now, this is serious. I mean, we are seeing people dying because of high commodity prices... It really brings to question the ethics of investing into commodities. No doubt it is an effective hedge against inflation, but think about the serious consequence for those who do not have the access to the financial instrument. Those of you who are long on crude, You have blood on your hands)
7. China May January - May Crude Imports higher by 12.7% YoY, Soybean Imports higher by 20.4% YoY
8. France CPI higher by 3.4% YoY
9. UK jobless higher by 9000 in May
10. Speculation of M&A for Aussie companies keeping AUD afloat
Expectations for the FX crosses
1. AUD : I am Neutral
2. GBP : Turning Negative, the Claimant number is getting higher
3. CAD : I am Negative
4. YEN : I am Negative
5. CHF : Positive
6. EUR : Neutral
End of the Day : Fed Hawkish talk still lingers in the market, which might lend support for the USD
(It has been a long time since I blogged, I will starting to blog to keep track of my views of the market as well as to track my current expectations of the forex pairs)
Portfolio Performance : 0%
Headline news today
1. Bank of Canada holds rates at 3%
2. US Fed insisting inflationary views, lends support to USD
3. Lots of focus on oil today, world protests high commodity prices
4. Gold sell off on pressure from oil and USD
5. Regulators focusing on easing commodity prices in the long term, coming up with solutions to solve food and oil crisis
My expectations for the following pairs against the USD
1. AUD - neutral, I expect it to be range bound
2. GBP - positive, bought at 1.9535
3. CAD - negative, I will wait and see
4. YEN - shaky on USD pressure, the pair might rally
5. CHF - weak on USD pressure
6. EUR - neutral, but might succumb to USD pressure
End of the Day: I think the USD is pressuring the pairs on Fed Talk, Bond and Gold Sell Off.
Portfolio Performance : 0%
Headline news today
1. Bank of Canada holds rates at 3%
2. US Fed insisting inflationary views, lends support to USD
3. Lots of focus on oil today, world protests high commodity prices
4. Gold sell off on pressure from oil and USD
5. Regulators focusing on easing commodity prices in the long term, coming up with solutions to solve food and oil crisis
My expectations for the following pairs against the USD
1. AUD - neutral, I expect it to be range bound
2. GBP - positive, bought at 1.9535
3. CAD - negative, I will wait and see
4. YEN - shaky on USD pressure, the pair might rally
5. CHF - weak on USD pressure
6. EUR - neutral, but might succumb to USD pressure
End of the Day: I think the USD is pressuring the pairs on Fed Talk, Bond and Gold Sell Off.
Monday, March 05, 2007
Fund Performance (incetion date : 4 Dec 06) : 0.66971% per day
5th Mar 07
EUR (Neutral) - Price inflation levels will be lower than what the European Central Bank deems as excessive. National European governments have started to worry that a tight monetary policy might stop economic recovery in the single-currency bloc. The ECB is set to lower its inflation forecast to about 1.8 per cent or 1.9 per cent, reflecting the recent decline in oil prices.
Later
0830h - AUD : Trade Balance / Building Approvals
1445h - CHF : GDP
1800h - EUR : Euro Zone Retail Sales
2200h - CAD : Rate Decision
5th Mar 07
EUR (Neutral) - Price inflation levels will be lower than what the European Central Bank deems as excessive. National European governments have started to worry that a tight monetary policy might stop economic recovery in the single-currency bloc. The ECB is set to lower its inflation forecast to about 1.8 per cent or 1.9 per cent, reflecting the recent decline in oil prices.
Later
0830h - AUD : Trade Balance / Building Approvals
1445h - CHF : GDP
1800h - EUR : Euro Zone Retail Sales
2200h - CAD : Rate Decision
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