Portfolio Performance : +31.17%
Recommendation : Short AUD/USD
US Dollar barometer stands at +2
Bottomline : US equity market ended in the red, however I dont feel that equities will drop a lot on Monday. I continue to see a big slide for commodities (maybe except for Agriculture).
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +31.17%
Actions : Did some intraday trading on the USD/CAD
US Barometer stands at -1.5
Recommended trade : Sell USD/JPY
Bottomline : US dollar strength deterioration is becoming apparent. US equities might weaken a little, I see some signs of fear coming up, I continue to think that the rally in crude will not last, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that equities will not break down in the short term
Actions : Did some intraday trading on the USD/CAD
US Barometer stands at -1.5
Recommended trade : Sell USD/JPY
Bottomline : US dollar strength deterioration is becoming apparent. US equities might weaken a little, I see some signs of fear coming up, I continue to think that the rally in crude will not last, but I am keeping my fingers crossed that equities will not break down in the short term
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +28.87%
US Dollar barometer stands at 0
Headline News
1. Japan's merchandise trade surplus tumbled 86.6% to 91.15 billion Yen in July from a year earlier as surging prices of crude oil and other commodities lifted imports
2. Japan trade deficit with China lower by 63.3%, with Taiwan lower by 6.2% and with Malaysia down 0.7%
3. Consumer confidence in Singapore registered its first drop after rising in every survey since its inception in 2005
4. Vietnam has proposed to more than double the export tariff ceiling on crude oil and coal to save more for domestic consumption
5. Singapore second quarter domestic wholesale trade higher by 25.4% from a year ago, slower than the 26.5% gain in the first quarter
6. British retail sales unexpectedly rose in July as prices rose at their fastest rate in a decade
7. US weekly jobless claims lower by 13 000 to 432 000 vs 448 000 expected
8. US continuing claims lower by 17 000 to 3.362M
9. US Philly Fed Business index -12.7 vs -16.3 in July
10. US Philly Fed Employment Index -1.1 in August vs -7.3 in July
Bottomline : Commodities are higher, boosting the Australian and Canadian dollar strongly. I think the strength in the US dollar and weak commodity prices in the previous month has helped the US economy
US Dollar barometer stands at 0
Headline News
1. Japan's merchandise trade surplus tumbled 86.6% to 91.15 billion Yen in July from a year earlier as surging prices of crude oil and other commodities lifted imports
2. Japan trade deficit with China lower by 63.3%, with Taiwan lower by 6.2% and with Malaysia down 0.7%
3. Consumer confidence in Singapore registered its first drop after rising in every survey since its inception in 2005
4. Vietnam has proposed to more than double the export tariff ceiling on crude oil and coal to save more for domestic consumption
5. Singapore second quarter domestic wholesale trade higher by 25.4% from a year ago, slower than the 26.5% gain in the first quarter
6. British retail sales unexpectedly rose in July as prices rose at their fastest rate in a decade
7. US weekly jobless claims lower by 13 000 to 432 000 vs 448 000 expected
8. US continuing claims lower by 17 000 to 3.362M
9. US Philly Fed Business index -12.7 vs -16.3 in July
10. US Philly Fed Employment Index -1.1 in August vs -7.3 in July
Bottomline : Commodities are higher, boosting the Australian and Canadian dollar strongly. I think the strength in the US dollar and weak commodity prices in the previous month has helped the US economy
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +28.86%
Actions : Did some intra-day trading on the EUR/USD pair, which helped the performance of the portfolio
US Dollar Barometer stands at -3
Headline News
1. Energy pits filled with rumors that Irving Oil has been buying as much as 1 million barrels of gasoline on the open market over the past two days, leading to speculation that there is a problem at Canada's largest oil refinery
2. Electricity-starved Nigeria signed a preliminary agreement on Tuesday with Germany to help boost power supply in Africa's top oil producer in the next 11 years
3. US ABC Consumer Comfort index -49 versus last week of -50
4. Japan June all-industries index lower by 0.9% from May
5. Australia's index of skilled job vacancies fell 4.3% seasonally adjusted in August from the previous month and was 14.4% lower from a year ago
6. India allows the export of rice, corn seeds
7. Vietnam central bank has raised its overnight loan rate to 15%
8. China July wholesale price higher by 9.4% year on year vs 9.5% year on year in June, according to the central bank
9. Taiwan Balance of Payment surplus 4.59 billion USD versus 1.89 billion deficit
10. British manufacturers expect to cut output at the fastest rate in nearly seven years, according to a survey published on Wednesday by the Confederation of British Industry
11. India's ministry of commerce and industry said that foreign investors must cut their stake in Indian commodities exchanges to 5% by June 30, 2009
12. The PWC quarterly measure of optimism said only 24% of CEOs in the US have a positive outlook for the economy in Q2 08, a new record low. 26% were positive in Q1 08
Bottomline : The US dollar is starting to lose its strength against the pairs, I suspect that we might continue to see a dislocation between the US dollar and commodities moving forward. The equity market might see some trouble ahead while commodities might bounce back
Actions : Did some intra-day trading on the EUR/USD pair, which helped the performance of the portfolio
US Dollar Barometer stands at -3
Headline News
1. Energy pits filled with rumors that Irving Oil has been buying as much as 1 million barrels of gasoline on the open market over the past two days, leading to speculation that there is a problem at Canada's largest oil refinery
2. Electricity-starved Nigeria signed a preliminary agreement on Tuesday with Germany to help boost power supply in Africa's top oil producer in the next 11 years
3. US ABC Consumer Comfort index -49 versus last week of -50
4. Japan June all-industries index lower by 0.9% from May
5. Australia's index of skilled job vacancies fell 4.3% seasonally adjusted in August from the previous month and was 14.4% lower from a year ago
6. India allows the export of rice, corn seeds
7. Vietnam central bank has raised its overnight loan rate to 15%
8. China July wholesale price higher by 9.4% year on year vs 9.5% year on year in June, according to the central bank
9. Taiwan Balance of Payment surplus 4.59 billion USD versus 1.89 billion deficit
10. British manufacturers expect to cut output at the fastest rate in nearly seven years, according to a survey published on Wednesday by the Confederation of British Industry
11. India's ministry of commerce and industry said that foreign investors must cut their stake in Indian commodities exchanges to 5% by June 30, 2009
12. The PWC quarterly measure of optimism said only 24% of CEOs in the US have a positive outlook for the economy in Q2 08, a new record low. 26% were positive in Q1 08
Bottomline : The US dollar is starting to lose its strength against the pairs, I suspect that we might continue to see a dislocation between the US dollar and commodities moving forward. The equity market might see some trouble ahead while commodities might bounce back
Portfolio Performance : +14.99%
Headline News
The USD barometer remains at -0.5
Headline News
1. The World Bank President Robert Zoellick called for a revived talks of last month's proposal for a safeguard to help poor farmers in poor countries withstand a flood of imports
2. US NAHB Housing Index unchanged at 16 in August, unchanged from July
3. The sharp fall in UK house prices recorded in the recent months lifted the number of properties going for rent, as it has become more profitable
4. RBA Minutes shows that less restrictive monetary policy may be needed in the months ahead
5. Bank of Japan downgrades the monthly economic outlook, Bank of Japan leaves target rate unchanged as expected
6. The Philippines recorded a balance of payment surplus of $142 million in July, against a deficit of $248 million in June
7. German PPI higher by 8.9% year on year
8. The ZEW research institute said its economic expectation index for Germany improved to -55.5 in August, from -63.9 points in July
9. US inflation at the wholesale level rose at the fastest annual pace in three decades, core inflation posted the largest annual gain in almost two decades
Bottomline : Things are not looking good for the equity market as earnings growth slows. The US dollar is starting to weaken. The EUR/USD pair is looking interesting, I might go long on it depending on the market performance
Headline News
The USD barometer remains at -0.5
Headline News
1. The World Bank President Robert Zoellick called for a revived talks of last month's proposal for a safeguard to help poor farmers in poor countries withstand a flood of imports
2. US NAHB Housing Index unchanged at 16 in August, unchanged from July
3. The sharp fall in UK house prices recorded in the recent months lifted the number of properties going for rent, as it has become more profitable
4. RBA Minutes shows that less restrictive monetary policy may be needed in the months ahead
5. Bank of Japan downgrades the monthly economic outlook, Bank of Japan leaves target rate unchanged as expected
6. The Philippines recorded a balance of payment surplus of $142 million in July, against a deficit of $248 million in June
7. German PPI higher by 8.9% year on year
8. The ZEW research institute said its economic expectation index for Germany improved to -55.5 in August, from -63.9 points in July
9. US inflation at the wholesale level rose at the fastest annual pace in three decades, core inflation posted the largest annual gain in almost two decades
Bottomline : Things are not looking good for the equity market as earnings growth slows. The US dollar is starting to weaken. The EUR/USD pair is looking interesting, I might go long on it depending on the market performance
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +17.35%
Actions : Did some intraday trading on the USD/CAD pair
US dollar barometer stays at -0.5
Headline News
1. Spain's economic minister says that unemployment rate in the country could end the year above the 10.4% forecast.
2. South Africa countries have launched a regional trade zone at a summit on Sunday that aims to eliminate import tariffs, with plans for a common currency by 2018
3. Analysts see no end to falling prices or a recovery in the sector before 2009
4. Activity in the NZ service sector improved from a record low in July, the index rose to 48.9 from 45.6 in June
5. The South Korean Won hit its weakest in six weeks against the US dollar on Monday
6. South Korean President Lee Myung bak predicted that the economy would recover around the end of next year, but said that inflation would be the main challenge facing the country
7. China's property climate index was at 102.36, down by 0.72 points from June and lower by 1.64 points from a year earlier.
8. Malaysia's manufacturing sales in June rose 17.8 percent from a year earlier, on higher demand for refined petroleum, iron and steel products
9. Singapore non oil exports unexpectedly fell in July dropping 2.2% after seasonal adjustments from June, providing new evidence that a global economic slowdown is weighing on Asian imports. This was in contrast to a 3.4% rise from the market
10. Japan July Department Store Sales lower by 2.5% year on year
11. Swiss Retail Sales higher by 0.7% in June
12. Unemployment in Hong Kong rose 3.2% for the May-July period, better than the market expectation for a 3.4% rise.
Actions : Did some intraday trading on the USD/CAD pair
US dollar barometer stays at -0.5
Headline News
1. Spain's economic minister says that unemployment rate in the country could end the year above the 10.4% forecast.
2. South Africa countries have launched a regional trade zone at a summit on Sunday that aims to eliminate import tariffs, with plans for a common currency by 2018
3. Analysts see no end to falling prices or a recovery in the sector before 2009
4. Activity in the NZ service sector improved from a record low in July, the index rose to 48.9 from 45.6 in June
5. The South Korean Won hit its weakest in six weeks against the US dollar on Monday
6. South Korean President Lee Myung bak predicted that the economy would recover around the end of next year, but said that inflation would be the main challenge facing the country
7. China's property climate index was at 102.36, down by 0.72 points from June and lower by 1.64 points from a year earlier.
8. Malaysia's manufacturing sales in June rose 17.8 percent from a year earlier, on higher demand for refined petroleum, iron and steel products
9. Singapore non oil exports unexpectedly fell in July dropping 2.2% after seasonal adjustments from June, providing new evidence that a global economic slowdown is weighing on Asian imports. This was in contrast to a 3.4% rise from the market
10. Japan July Department Store Sales lower by 2.5% year on year
11. Swiss Retail Sales higher by 0.7% in June
12. Unemployment in Hong Kong rose 3.2% for the May-July period, better than the market expectation for a 3.4% rise.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +14.99%
Headline News
1. Singapore Minister Mentor Lee said that Singapore GDP will fall between 3-5% if the US and Europe falls into a recession
2. Japan Tetiary Index lower by 0.8% from May
3. China's industrial output higher by 16.1% from a year ago, forecast was for a 15.9% increase
4. Tokyo July Condominium Sales lower by 44.5% year on year, Osaka sales down 29.5% (wow, this is powerful)
5. Swiss Consumer Sentiment index -17 vs -5 forecast
6. German's GDP declines 0.5% from the first quarter, consensus looking for a 0.9% decline. It's first in four years
7. Indonesia's annual economic growth accelerated to 6.39% in the second quarter despite a rise in borrowing costs and higher fuel prices
8. Dutch GDP highger by 2.8% from a year ago
9. Euro Zone July HICP higher by 4% year on year
10. Euro Zone Q2 GDP higher by 1.5% year on year from 2.1% YoY in Q1
11. US Jobless Claims lower by 10 000 to 450 000 vs 440 000 expected
My expectation for the US crosses
1. EUR : Midly Negative
2. AUD : Neutral
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Negative
5. JPY : Midly Negative
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : The US dollar strength is back in the market, the bears who turned up at the equity market have lost interest in shorting the market. I think the market is getting to so much bad news, but the bulls have also gone tired of buying.
Headline News
1. Singapore Minister Mentor Lee said that Singapore GDP will fall between 3-5% if the US and Europe falls into a recession
2. Japan Tetiary Index lower by 0.8% from May
3. China's industrial output higher by 16.1% from a year ago, forecast was for a 15.9% increase
4. Tokyo July Condominium Sales lower by 44.5% year on year, Osaka sales down 29.5% (wow, this is powerful)
5. Swiss Consumer Sentiment index -17 vs -5 forecast
6. German's GDP declines 0.5% from the first quarter, consensus looking for a 0.9% decline. It's first in four years
7. Indonesia's annual economic growth accelerated to 6.39% in the second quarter despite a rise in borrowing costs and higher fuel prices
8. Dutch GDP highger by 2.8% from a year ago
9. Euro Zone July HICP higher by 4% year on year
10. Euro Zone Q2 GDP higher by 1.5% year on year from 2.1% YoY in Q1
11. US Jobless Claims lower by 10 000 to 450 000 vs 440 000 expected
My expectation for the US crosses
1. EUR : Midly Negative
2. AUD : Neutral
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Negative
5. JPY : Midly Negative
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : The US dollar strength is back in the market, the bears who turned up at the equity market have lost interest in shorting the market. I think the market is getting to so much bad news, but the bulls have also gone tired of buying.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +14.98%
Headline News
1. US oil demand during the first half of 2008 fell by an average 800 000 barrels a day compared to the same period a year ago, the biggest volume decline in 26 years
2. Chairman of the "Wisemen" that advise the German government on economic issues, Bert Ruerup noted in an interview on the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a preview of an article in tomorrow's paper, that " I can't rule out a recession, but I certainly don't see one; but I do see noticeable weakness"
3. The US Treasury budget deficit grew to $102.22 billion in July, a 182% hike from the $36.45 billion a year ago
4. US ABC/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index -50 vs -49 the previous week
5. Japan Q2 Real GDP fell by 0.6% from Q1.
6. Japan June Current Account Surplus 493.9 billion Yen vs 1.52 Trillion Yen
7. The Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index climbed 9.1% to 86.2 in August
8. China July Retail Sales Higher by 23.3% year on year
9. Spain final July Core Inflation 3.5% year on year vs 3.3% year on year
10. UK July Claimant Count higher by 20 100 biggest rise since Dec 1992
11. Euro Zone June Industrial Output unchanged vs May
12. China End July M2 Money Supply higher by 16.35% year on year
13. Indonesia Current Account Surplus unexpectedly narrowed slightly in the second quarter of 2008, providing support for the rupiah and underlining the importance of commodities exports to the economy
14. US July retail sales fell in July for the first time in five months as falling sales at auto dealers offset in most other major retail sectors
15. Thought struggling automakers managed to reduce their inventories in June, total business inventories rose more than expected and at their fastest annual pace in more than a year.
My expectations for the US crosses
1. EUR : Midly Positive
2. AUD : Midly Positive
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Positive
5. JPY : Midly Positive
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : The commodity market is back to its feet once again, causing a depreciation of the US dollar. I feel the equity market might in for a spin soon
Headline News
1. US oil demand during the first half of 2008 fell by an average 800 000 barrels a day compared to the same period a year ago, the biggest volume decline in 26 years
2. Chairman of the "Wisemen" that advise the German government on economic issues, Bert Ruerup noted in an interview on the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, a preview of an article in tomorrow's paper, that " I can't rule out a recession, but I certainly don't see one; but I do see noticeable weakness"
3. The US Treasury budget deficit grew to $102.22 billion in July, a 182% hike from the $36.45 billion a year ago
4. US ABC/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index -50 vs -49 the previous week
5. Japan Q2 Real GDP fell by 0.6% from Q1.
6. Japan June Current Account Surplus 493.9 billion Yen vs 1.52 Trillion Yen
7. The Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index climbed 9.1% to 86.2 in August
8. China July Retail Sales Higher by 23.3% year on year
9. Spain final July Core Inflation 3.5% year on year vs 3.3% year on year
10. UK July Claimant Count higher by 20 100 biggest rise since Dec 1992
11. Euro Zone June Industrial Output unchanged vs May
12. China End July M2 Money Supply higher by 16.35% year on year
13. Indonesia Current Account Surplus unexpectedly narrowed slightly in the second quarter of 2008, providing support for the rupiah and underlining the importance of commodities exports to the economy
14. US July retail sales fell in July for the first time in five months as falling sales at auto dealers offset in most other major retail sectors
15. Thought struggling automakers managed to reduce their inventories in June, total business inventories rose more than expected and at their fastest annual pace in more than a year.
My expectations for the US crosses
1. EUR : Midly Positive
2. AUD : Midly Positive
3. GBP : Neutral
4. CAD : Positive
5. JPY : Midly Positive
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : The commodity market is back to its feet once again, causing a depreciation of the US dollar. I feel the equity market might in for a spin soon
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +9.4%
Actions : Long EUR/USD
Headline News
1. Alocoa lead Dow industrial decliners yesterday, on track for lowest close in 7 months
2. A substantial portion of banks say they have tightened lending standards for commercial and industrial loans, residential real estatem and consumer loans over the last three months, but fewer banks expect to tighten lending standards on these loans over the next year, according to a July Federal survey of Senior Loan Officers
3. Japan's July corporate goods price index higher by 7.1% year on year
4. A key measure of Australian business conditions hit its lowest level in seven years in July as firms reported falling sales and profitability, adding to the case for an urgent cut in official rates
5. China CPI higher by 6.3% year on year
6. Citigroup says that slower economic growth and higher product prices are expected to cut into Chinese oil demand in the second half of the year
7. Japan's revised June industrial output lower by 2.2%
8. Japan's July consumer confidence index down at 31.4 from 32.6 in June
9. New Zealand house prices were flat in July, while the number of sales bounced off 16 year lows, a survey showed on Tuesday. Sales is higher by 4.3% from June but lower by 32.6% from a year ago
10. Indonesian consumer confidence rose in July after falling for eight straight months, indicating that less respondents expressed pessimism about current economic conditions and the economic outlook for Indonesia
11. Russia's central bank said that the military conflict with Georgia over South Ossentia will lead to short term capital outflow from Russia, but should not have a big economic impact (is he kidding?)
12. French current account deficit -4.4 billion Euros vs Revised -2.8 Billion Euros
13. The South Korean won fell against the dollar on Tuesday as the US currency rose on mounting worries about a slowing global economy and was further pressured by importer's dollar demand for settlements
14. Russia says that they will reduce thier investments in US agency debt, driven by political pressure and the holdings may further be reduced
15. IEA says that Georgia conflict threatens energy hub, but the agency warned that it was too soon to say that the tide of the recent long surge of oil prices had finally turned, signalling that the softer conditions were likely to last into 2009 (I dont think so)
16. Saudi BinLaden Group to invest in Indonesia
17. The US trade deficit in June unexpectedly improved as US goods and services exports increased faster than imports, according to the US Commerce Department
My expectation for the US crosses
1. EUR : Positive
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Negative
4. CAD : Positive
5. JPY : Negative
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : The US dollar strength has decreased, but I continue to think that the equity market is still bullish which might put the US dollar in a positive light still
Actions : Long EUR/USD
Headline News
1. Alocoa lead Dow industrial decliners yesterday, on track for lowest close in 7 months
2. A substantial portion of banks say they have tightened lending standards for commercial and industrial loans, residential real estatem and consumer loans over the last three months, but fewer banks expect to tighten lending standards on these loans over the next year, according to a July Federal survey of Senior Loan Officers
3. Japan's July corporate goods price index higher by 7.1% year on year
4. A key measure of Australian business conditions hit its lowest level in seven years in July as firms reported falling sales and profitability, adding to the case for an urgent cut in official rates
5. China CPI higher by 6.3% year on year
6. Citigroup says that slower economic growth and higher product prices are expected to cut into Chinese oil demand in the second half of the year
7. Japan's revised June industrial output lower by 2.2%
8. Japan's July consumer confidence index down at 31.4 from 32.6 in June
9. New Zealand house prices were flat in July, while the number of sales bounced off 16 year lows, a survey showed on Tuesday. Sales is higher by 4.3% from June but lower by 32.6% from a year ago
10. Indonesian consumer confidence rose in July after falling for eight straight months, indicating that less respondents expressed pessimism about current economic conditions and the economic outlook for Indonesia
11. Russia's central bank said that the military conflict with Georgia over South Ossentia will lead to short term capital outflow from Russia, but should not have a big economic impact (is he kidding?)
12. French current account deficit -4.4 billion Euros vs Revised -2.8 Billion Euros
13. The South Korean won fell against the dollar on Tuesday as the US currency rose on mounting worries about a slowing global economy and was further pressured by importer's dollar demand for settlements
14. Russia says that they will reduce thier investments in US agency debt, driven by political pressure and the holdings may further be reduced
15. IEA says that Georgia conflict threatens energy hub, but the agency warned that it was too soon to say that the tide of the recent long surge of oil prices had finally turned, signalling that the softer conditions were likely to last into 2009 (I dont think so)
16. Saudi BinLaden Group to invest in Indonesia
17. The US trade deficit in June unexpectedly improved as US goods and services exports increased faster than imports, according to the US Commerce Department
My expectation for the US crosses
1. EUR : Positive
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Negative
4. CAD : Positive
5. JPY : Negative
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : The US dollar strength has decreased, but I continue to think that the equity market is still bullish which might put the US dollar in a positive light still
Monday, August 11, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +8.634%
Headline News
1. Singapore Prime Minister reduces GDP growth estimate to 4-5% from 4-6% and said that the country faced a tough year ahead as it was beginning to feel the impact of a US slowdown
2. Australian central bank said that the economy looked to be slowing enough to significantly reduce inflation over time, providing growing scope to east interest rates from 12 year highs
3. Short Term Aussie Bonds fall as the RBA gave little clues as to whether they would reduce interest rates in future
4. Malaysia says that slowing economic growth in Malaysia will reduce inflationary pressure
5. Malaysia's June annual factory output growth fell to a 10 month low as manufacturing and mining sectors cooled in tandem with slowing global demand
6. Azerbaijan halts oil exports from 2 Georgian ports
7. China trade surplus was 25.28 billion USD in July, higher from the 21.35 USD billion in June
8. German July wholesale price index higher by 1.4% from June, higher by 9.9% year on year
9. The world's leading developed economies are set to slow more sharply in the months ahead, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development indicators of future activity. The OECD said that its composite leading indicators fell to 96.8 from 97.4 in May and was down 5 points from June 2007
10. UK July input prices higher by 0.4% from June, higher by 10.2% year on year
11. India's gold imports in July declined 56% as high prices curbed consumption and investment demand from the world's largest bullion consumer
My expectation for the US dollar crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Negative
4. CAD : Positive
5. JPY : Negative
6. CHF : Negative
Bottomline : The US dollar is coming back strong. This should continue to support the equity market moving forward
Headline News
1. Singapore Prime Minister reduces GDP growth estimate to 4-5% from 4-6% and said that the country faced a tough year ahead as it was beginning to feel the impact of a US slowdown
2. Australian central bank said that the economy looked to be slowing enough to significantly reduce inflation over time, providing growing scope to east interest rates from 12 year highs
3. Short Term Aussie Bonds fall as the RBA gave little clues as to whether they would reduce interest rates in future
4. Malaysia says that slowing economic growth in Malaysia will reduce inflationary pressure
5. Malaysia's June annual factory output growth fell to a 10 month low as manufacturing and mining sectors cooled in tandem with slowing global demand
6. Azerbaijan halts oil exports from 2 Georgian ports
7. China trade surplus was 25.28 billion USD in July, higher from the 21.35 USD billion in June
8. German July wholesale price index higher by 1.4% from June, higher by 9.9% year on year
9. The world's leading developed economies are set to slow more sharply in the months ahead, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development indicators of future activity. The OECD said that its composite leading indicators fell to 96.8 from 97.4 in May and was down 5 points from June 2007
10. UK July input prices higher by 0.4% from June, higher by 10.2% year on year
11. India's gold imports in July declined 56% as high prices curbed consumption and investment demand from the world's largest bullion consumer
My expectation for the US dollar crosses
1. EUR : Negative
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Negative
4. CAD : Positive
5. JPY : Negative
6. CHF : Negative
Bottomline : The US dollar is coming back strong. This should continue to support the equity market moving forward
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Portfolio Performance : +8.59%
Headline News
1. Three Indian States finalised the sites for setting up ultra mega power plants.
2. South Korea's largest business lobby group warned on Tuesday that an interest rate hike was more likely to hurt the economy than help contain consumer inflation.
3. Philippine consumer prices climbed to a near 17 year high of 12.2% in July from a year earlier
4. New Vehicle Sales in Australia fell 6.3% in July
5. RBA keeps interest rates unchanged at 7.25%
6. RBA says door open for easing
7. Alan Greespan said that more banks and financial institutions could end up being bailed out by governments before the credit crisis is over.
8. Greenspan cautions that a heavy handed regulatory response to the crisis would do more harm than good because it would depress global stock prices.
9. Euro Zone July Service PMI 48.3, lowest since 2003
10. Euro Zone Composite PMI 47.8, lowest since Nov 2001
11. Consumer price Index in July in Taiwan rose 5.92% year on year from 4.97% in June
12. Bank of China rumored to be studying German Bank for stake
13. UK service sector shrinks for the third straight month in July
14. US July ISM non-manufacturing composite 49.5 verses 48.2 in June
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Slightly Positive
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Negative
4. CAD : Neutral
5. JPY : Slightly Negative
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : US Dollar strength is still apparent in the market. The equity market might still trend higher.
Headline News
1. Three Indian States finalised the sites for setting up ultra mega power plants.
2. South Korea's largest business lobby group warned on Tuesday that an interest rate hike was more likely to hurt the economy than help contain consumer inflation.
3. Philippine consumer prices climbed to a near 17 year high of 12.2% in July from a year earlier
4. New Vehicle Sales in Australia fell 6.3% in July
5. RBA keeps interest rates unchanged at 7.25%
6. RBA says door open for easing
7. Alan Greespan said that more banks and financial institutions could end up being bailed out by governments before the credit crisis is over.
8. Greenspan cautions that a heavy handed regulatory response to the crisis would do more harm than good because it would depress global stock prices.
9. Euro Zone July Service PMI 48.3, lowest since 2003
10. Euro Zone Composite PMI 47.8, lowest since Nov 2001
11. Consumer price Index in July in Taiwan rose 5.92% year on year from 4.97% in June
12. Bank of China rumored to be studying German Bank for stake
13. UK service sector shrinks for the third straight month in July
14. US July ISM non-manufacturing composite 49.5 verses 48.2 in June
My expectation for the USD crosses
1. EUR : Slightly Positive
2. AUD : Negative
3. GBP : Negative
4. CAD : Neutral
5. JPY : Slightly Negative
6. CHF : Neutral
Bottomline : US Dollar strength is still apparent in the market. The equity market might still trend higher.
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